It is not clear that independent candidates hurt Charlie Baker's chances in 2014

Claim was made that Cahill hurt Baker in 2010, but polling shows he was a non-factor
by BRENT BENSON

A recent article in the Boston Globe—Independents may complicate Baker’s bid—attempts to make the case the independent candidates for Massachusetts Governor, like Jeffrey McCormick, might swing the 2014 race by taking votes from Republican Charlie Baker. A similar claim was made in the 2010 gubernatorial race about independent candidate Tim Cahill, but polling just before the election shows Cahill supporters were evenly split between Deval Patrick and Charlie Baker, making him a non-factor in the race.

Conventional wisdom in 2010 was that Tim Cahill's candidacy split the anti-incumbent vote and allowed Deval Patrick to beat Charlie Baker. However, a Suffolk University poll conducted just before the election showed Deval Patrick slightly ahead of Charlie Baker as the second choice for Cahill voters. In addition, all of the Jill Stein voters who had a second choice, chose Deval Patrick.

The poll would seem to indicate that Cahill was likely a non-factor, taking an even number of votes from Patrick and Baker, while Stein probably took votes only from Patrick (albeit a small number of votes given Stein's 1.4% share of the vote on election day).

While every race is different and McCormick or another candidate might be a factor in 2014, it is prudent to remember that independent and third-party candidates have not ended up playing a large roll in recent Massachusetts elections.

For additional discussion on what recent history says about Charlie Baker's chances in 2014, see my piece in the latest issue of Commonwealth Magazine:

The GOP's corner office strategy

Endorsements of Walsh by Arroyo, Barros and Richie had a profound effect on election outcome

Walsh won almost all of the precincts secured by his endorsers in the preliminary, increasing his margin and securing thousands of votes
by BRENT BENSON

State Representative Marty Walsh defeated City Councilor John Connolly by a margin of 4,908 votes in Tuesday's general election and an analysis of the precinct-by-precinct results show clearly that Walsh's endorsements by preliminary candidates Felix Arroyo, John Barros, and Charlotte Golar Richie had a profound effect on the outcome of the race.

Of the 93 precincts won by Arroyo, Barros, and Richie in the preliminary, Walsh won 81 of those precincts in the general election by a total of 7,859 votes.  It is unlikely that Walsh would have done as well in those precincts without the endorsements. A comparison of the Walsh and Connolly voter share in the preliminary had Connolly ahead of Walsh in 55 of the 93 precincts, but in the general election, Connolly was ahead in only 12 of the 93 precincts.

Walsh's margin over Connolly increased between the preliminary and general election in all but two precincts. His average increase in margin was 21.6 points across all 93 precincts. Multiplying the increase in voter share between Walsh and Connolly in the preliminary times the number of general election voters on a precinct-by-precinct basis, shows that Walsh increased share amounted to 8,579 votes. We do not have the data to attribute all of those voters to the endorsements, but it is not inconceivable that a large fraction of Walsh's 4,908 Boston-wide margin were influenced by the Arroyo, Barros, and Richie endorsements.

The table shows each precinct won by an endorser, the margin between Walsh and Connolly in the preliminary, the general election winner, the margin between Walsh and Connolly in the general, Walsh's increase in margin between the preliminary and general, the a count of the general election votes that increase in margin represents.

Suffolk poll suggests Boston mayoral endorsements are having an effect

by BRENT BENSON

The most recent poll from Suffolk University for the November 5 Boston mayoral election suggest that endorsements of State Representative Marty Walsh by preliminary candidates Felix Arroyo, John Barros, and Charlotte Golar Richie are helping Walsh. The poll shows Walsh leading with voters that voted for each of those endorsing candidates, and a look at the ward-by-ward geography shows Walsh consolidating the geographic areas won by his endorsers.

The survey shows a strong lead for Walsh among voters that voted for Arroyo and Barros in the preliminary election, and a smaller lead among Golar Richie voters. A ward-by-ward map of the Suffolk results shows Walsh starting to consolidate the areas won by his endorsers.

SUFFOLK WARD-BY-WARD RESULTS (click for interactive map)

Suffolk poll provides more evidence that Walsh has overtaken Connolly for lead in Boston mayoral race

Walsh has seen a steady rise in the polls and now leads the time-weighted polling average
by BRENT BENSON

A new poll from Suffolk University conducted less than a week before the November 5 election shows State Representative Marty Walsh with a 3 point lead over City Councilor John Connolly and provides more evidence that Walsh is now leading the race. A time-weighted polling average has also tipped in Walsh's favor, giving him a 2 point lead of 44% to 42%.

A graph of the polling numbers fitted with linear regression lines shows a clear rise for Walsh from the low 30s in early October, to the mid 40s this week. The fit for the Connolly line shows a slight rise, but with much less confidence in the fit. The graph, trend line, and analysis of the cross-tabs calls the the UNH poll number for Connolly into question—whether it resulted from a methodological difference or just an unlucky sample, the number does not fit well with the other polling.

Polls used in average:

• Herald/Suffolk, 10/7/2013
• UMass Lowell, 10/10/2013
• WBUR/MassINC, 10/23/2013
• Globe/UNH, 10/24/2013
• UMass Amherst, 10/30/2013
• Herald/Suffolk, 11/1/2013

Boston mayoral polling average shows a tie between Connolly and Walsh

Walsh surpasses Connolly in latest UMass poll while UNH poll bucks trends
by BRENT BENSON

[Note: See this polling average update that includes the last Suffolk University poll.]

City Councilor John Connolly was the early leader in the polling of voters in the head-to-head race for Boston Mayor against State Representative Marty Walsh, but Marty Walsh has surpassed Connolly in the latest UMass poll and a time-weighted average shows a tie with each candidate carrying 42% of the vote.

A graph of the polling numbers with fitted linear regression trend lines shows what seems to be an outlier in Connolly's number of 47% in the UNH poll. A graphical representation of the poll numbers with a regression trend line emphasizes the outlying nature of the point.

Statistical fit measurements confirm that the trend line for Connoly is not very reliable (R-squared of 0.2) compared to the goodness of fit measurements for the Walsh (R-squared of 0.8) and Undecided (R-squared of 0.9) trend lines. While more data would be needed to make a definitive statement, one explanation would be consistent numbers around 40% for Connolly and rising numbers from mid-30s to mid-40s for Walsh.

A look at the gender breakdown in the polls shows Connolly and Walsh approximately tied with men in all but the UNH poll, which has Connolly with a 14 point advantage among males, a number that is way out of line with the other polls. There is a fairly steady trend upwards with women supporters of Walsh.

There is not enough consistency in the polling to declare a strong favorite in the race to replace Mayor Menino. It is clear that Walsh has made headway against the early lead held by Connolly, but it is not clear whether the race is tied, or Walsh has moved into the lead.

Clark's 5th Middlesex senate district overlaps seven house districts but only three representatives

On Tuesday, October 15 Katherine Clark handily won the Democratic primary to replace Ed Markey as U.S. Representative for the Fifth Congressional District. While Clark still needs to win the general election on December 10 against Republican Frank Addivinola, there is very little doubt in the outcome as President Obama won the district by 33 points and Elizabeth Warren won it over Scott Brown by 18 points.

The cascading effect of special elections will continue, as Clark's 5th Middlesex state senate district becomes vacant. Local State Representatives often run for open State Senate seats, leading us to look at the state representative districts that overlap the 5th Middlesex senate district.

There are seven House districts overlapping the 5th Middlesex Senate District. Two of the seats are represented by Republicans: Donald Wong (Saugus) and Minority Leader Brad Jones (North Reading). Four of the seats are represented by Democrats: James Dwyer (Woburn), Jason Lewis (Winchester), Paul Brodeur (Melrose), Christopher Fallon (Malden), and Paul Donato (Medford).

Only Representatives Lewis, Brodeur, and Fallon reside within the 5th Middlesex District, qualifying them to run for the upcoming vacancy.

(click for interactive map)

Suffolk mayoral poll gives first look at Walsh and Connolly's head-to-head regional strengths

by BRENT BENSON

On October 7 the Suffolk University Political Research Center released the first head-to-head Boston mayoral poll between City Councilor John Connolly and State Representative Marty Walsh. The poll showed Connolly with a 7 point advantage at 41%, Walsh at 34%, and 23% of the voters undecided. An analysis of the ward-by-ward cross-tabs allows us to get a feel for the possible regional strengths of each candidate. Note that the sample sizes for each ward are quite small, so any conclusions should be taken with a grain of salt.

Suffolk poll ward-by-ward results (click for interactive map)

Walsh showed strength around his home district and throughout Dorchester, stringing together Wards 7, 15, and 16, by sizable margins. Walsh also polled above Connolly in Ward 10—won by City Councilor Mike Ross in the preliminary election, Ward 11—where Felix Arroyo and Charlotte Golar Richie won the precincts, and Ward 18 which was split between Rob Consalvo and Richie in September.

The poll showed Connolly ahead in more wards and he made inroads in the South End's Ward 6, which was won by Walsh in the preliminary. He also had strong showings in his home neighborhood of West Roxbury and was again tops in the Back Bay. Connolly's biggest advantage was in Ward 8 where Walsh did not receive any support, albeit with a sample size of 11 probable voters.

A comparison of this poll map with the map of precinct-by-precinct preliminary election winners, shows the importance of an endorsement of Walsh or Connolly by one of the other major vote-getters like Richie, Arroyo, Ross, or Consalvo. While the 7 point lead in the Suffolk survey by Connolly is significant, there is still time and room for Walsh to bridge the gap.