Suffolk poll provides more evidence that Walsh has overtaken Connolly for lead in Boston mayoral race

Walsh has seen a steady rise in the polls and now leads the time-weighted polling average
by BRENT BENSON

A new poll from Suffolk University conducted less than a week before the November 5 election shows State Representative Marty Walsh with a 3 point lead over City Councilor John Connolly and provides more evidence that Walsh is now leading the race. A time-weighted polling average has also tipped in Walsh's favor, giving him a 2 point lead of 44% to 42%.

A graph of the polling numbers fitted with linear regression lines shows a clear rise for Walsh from the low 30s in early October, to the mid 40s this week. The fit for the Connolly line shows a slight rise, but with much less confidence in the fit. The graph, trend line, and analysis of the cross-tabs calls the the UNH poll number for Connolly into question—whether it resulted from a methodological difference or just an unlucky sample, the number does not fit well with the other polling.

Polls used in average:

• Herald/Suffolk, 10/7/2013
• UMass Lowell, 10/10/2013
• WBUR/MassINC, 10/23/2013
• Globe/UNH, 10/24/2013
• UMass Amherst, 10/30/2013
• Herald/Suffolk, 11/1/2013