Charlie Baker's problem isn't lack of personality, it's that nobody knows who he is

Baker's name recognition numbers incredibly low for a recent gubernatorial candidate
by BRENT BENSON

Former Senator Scott Brown announced last night that he is not planning to run for Massachusetts Governor, leaving the GOP field wide open for former gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker. Brown was quoted as saying of Baker "Is he he Mr. Personality? No. Everyone knows that he's not." Unfortunately for Baker, the problem is not that he lacks personality, but that Massachusetts voters don't know who he is, even after a high-profile run for Governor three years ago.

A poll conducted by WBUR and MassINC Polling in mid-December 2012, just two years after Deval Patrick defeated Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill in a well-covered statewide race, showed Charlie Baker tied with Marty Meehan for lowest name recognition, with 36% of voters having never heard of either—an astoundingly low number for a recent gubernatorial candidate. An additional 35% of respondents didn't know enough about Baker to have an opinion, leaving 17% who looked on Baker favorably, and 13% who had an unfavorable impression. There were fully 71% of the surveyed voters that hadn't connected at any level with Baker.

A more recent poll conducted by Public Policy Polling in early May of 2013 had similar findings with 21% of the respondents having a favorable opinion of Charlie Baker, 20% unfavorable, and 59% of the surveyed voters unsure.

While Treasurer Steve Grossman, who has recently declared his candidacy for governor, had similarly low name-recognition numbers in the May PPP poll (20% favorable, 14% unfavorable, and 66% not sure), Grossman's campaign for Treasurer in 2010 against GOP nominee Karyn Polito did not receive nearly the media attention of the governor's race. Grossman has yet to have his opportunity to make a splash with the Massachusetts electorate.

While Charlie Baker's lack of personality may be a contributor to his failure to make an impression on Massachusetts voters in 2010, it is clear that he has an incredible amount of work to do in order to win a majority in 2014.

Candidates for the three open State Rep. seats

Special state primaries to be held on Tuesday, August 13
by BRENT BENSON

All three of the districts are comfortably Democratic. Tomorrow's special primaries may very well determine the winner of all of the races. The fundraising numbers are the receipts and expenditures numbers from the pre-primary reports on OCPF.

Twelfth Suffolk State Representative District

Previously held by Senator Linda Dorcena Forry who resigned after being elected as State Senator for the First Suffolk district. The district is overwhelmingly Democratic—ranked 6/160—with President Obama winning the district by 80 points and Senator Warren beating Scott Brown by 72 points.

• Dan Cullinane (D) - Field director for Forry campaign - http://www.dancullinane.com/ - raised: $16,915, spent: $15,430
• Stephanie Everett (D) - Executive Director for Multi Boards with the Massachusetts Department of Public Health - http://stephanieeverett.com/ - raised: $1,620, spent: $3,731
• Marydith Tuitt (D) - Navy veteran - http://vote4mary.net/ - raised: $1,630, spent $2,283

Sixteenth Worcester State Representative District

Previously held by Rep. John Fresolo who resigned the seat. The district is very Democratic—ranked 48/160—with President Obama winning the district by 42 points and Senator Warren beating Scott Brown by 26 points.

• Daniel Donahue (D) - Director of Policy and Assistant Chief of Staff to Worcester Mayor Joe Petty - http://dandonahue.org/ - raised: $12,506, spent: $2,850
• Khrystian King (D) - Social Worker with the Department of Children and Families - http://king4staterep.com/ - raised: $2,143, spent: $4,037
• Daniele Nanni (D) - Pharmacy Buyer for Critical Care Systems in Shrewsbury - Facebook - raised: $4,775, spent: $4,173
• James O'Brien (D) - Human Services Manager and Real Estate Agent - http://www.jimobrienforrep.com/ - raised: $850, spent: $3,285
• Joshua Perro (D) - Junior at Clark University studying Political Science and Economics - http://www.joshperro.com/ - raised: $6,225, spent: $6,400
• Carol Claros (R) - Nurse - http://www.carolclaros.com/ - raised: $6,660, spent: $3,129

This previous article provides more specifics about the district and the likelihood of GOP win for Claros.  

Sixth Bristol State Representative District

Previously held by Rep. David Sullivan who resigned to take a position with the Fall River Housing Authority. The district is very Democratic—ranked 49/160—with President Obama winning the district by 40 points and Senator Warren beating Scott Brown by 26 points.

• David Dennis (D) - Fall River City Councilor - http://www.davidjdennis.com/ - raised: $0, spent: $2,085
• Carole Fiola (D) - Former Governor's Councillor - http://electcarole.com/ - raised: $2,640, spent: $19,960
• Brad Kilby (D) - Fall River City Councilor - Facebook - raised: $3,290, spent: $3,237
• Gerald Potvin (D) - Department of Transportation employee - Facebook - raised: $200, spent: $1,078
• David Steinhof (R) - Dentist - http://www.davidsteinhof.com/ - raised: $2,790, spent: $1,918

Note Carole Fiola's expenditures of $19,960 including $11,000 on printing and $2,600 on radio advertising.

Knapik resignation leaves opening for Democratic Senate pickup in 2nd Hampden and Hampshire

Strength of candidate and ability to turn out voters in Holyoke and Easthampton will be key
by BRENT BENSON

Republican State Senator Mike Knapik of Westfield has announced that he is resigning his 2nd Hampden and Hampshire seat to take a position at Westfield State University. Analysis of 2012 Presidential and Senate results in Knapik's district shows an opening for a strong Democratic candidate to win the seat in the upcoming special election. President Obama won the district by 21 points and Senator Warren defeated Scott Brown by 4 points in the district.

However, the district is not necessarily a slam dunk for the Democratic nominee in the upcoming special election. The Democratic votes in the district are concentrated in the more populated areas of Holyoke and Easthampton, while the Republican votes are in the more rural and suburban southwestern parts of the district. It may be difficult to achieve turnout levels in Holyoke and Easthampton that match the traditionally higher special election turnout in the suburbs.

There is a detailed article on Blue Mass Group examining some of the possible candidates for the position, including Republican State Rep. Donald Humason, who has already put his hat into the ring, and Democratic State Rep. Aaron Vega of Holyoke. A run by Vega would likely help with Democratic turnout, given his strength and name recognition in Holyoke.

Average of Obama and Warren Margins (click for interactive map)

Precinct-by-precinct results for 2nd Hampden and Hampshire district

Can the GOP win the 16th Worcester MA House special election?

Massachusetts Republicans are hoping Carol Claros can pull off a repeat of Leah Cole's 12th Essex special election win in Peabody

On May 22, Worcester State Representative John Fresolo resigned. Secretary of State William Galvin scheduled a special election to replace Fresolo with a primary on August 13 and the special election on September 10. There are 5 candidates facing off in the August Democratic primary—Daniel Donahue, Khrystian King, Daniele Nanni, James O’Brien, and Joshua Perro. The Democratic winner will face off against Republican Carol Claros on September 10.

What are the chances of Republican Carol Claros to win over the eventual Democratic nominee? The Massachusetts GOP is hoping for some good news after a long series of losses. One recent  bright spot for the MA GOP was political newcomer Leah Cole's win in Peabody in a special election on April 2 to replace Democratic State Representative Joyce Spiliotis. Some Republicans are comparing the two races and candidates Cole and Claros, and hoping Claros can reproduce the Cole special election win.

However, there are key differences between the 12th Essex seat won by Cole, and the 16th Worcester seat being sought by Claros. While the results of the special election will depend on which Democrat wins the primary and the strength and strategy of the campaigns, it is instructive to look at how Republican candidates typically fare in the 16th Worcester district, and to compare with historical results in the Peabody-based 12th Essex district now held by Rep. Cole.

The 16th Worcester MA House District

The 16th Worcester Massachusetts House District encompasses much of the south side of Worcester from South Worcester, Vernon Hill, and Grafton Hill, down through Broadmeadow and Quinsigamond Village. The 2012 Presidential election returns for the district give the impression of an overwhelmingly Democratic electorate.

The score of each precinct, and the district as a whole, is calculated by averaging the margins of the Presidential and Senate races.

President Obama averaged 71% of the vote and Senator Warren 63% of the vote for the district, and the average margin for all of the precincts is a 33.7 point advantage for Democrats. This is a solidly Democratic district.

The 12th Essex MA House District

The 2012 results from the 12th Essex District are quite a bit different. Five of the 15 district precincts had a higher average margin for Republicans than Democrats, and Scott Brown won the district with 51% to Elizabeth Warren's 49%.

While the scoring mechanism of averaging the margins gives a 7.4 point advantage to Democrats overall, we occasionally see this type of district being won by a Republican, as happened in the Leah Cole victory.

Republican Leah Cole defeated Democrat Beverley Ann Griffin Dunne and Independent David Gravel (while Gravel ran as an Independent, he pledged during the campaign to caucus with House Democrats, if elected). Cole's final margin over Dunne was 73 votes. The three-way nature of the race may have played a role in the outcome—Cole's campaign acknowledged that they saw an opportunity to divide the Democratic vote between Dunne and Gravel as they both identified ideologically as Democrats.

Can Carol Claros win in the 16th Worcester District?

While Leah Cole emerged victorious in the April 2 special election, it is unlikely that Carol Claros can repeat this GOP success without a great deal of help and Democratic bad luck. There are numerous instances where Republican State Rep. candidates have won elections in slightly Democratic-leaning districts, but they are relatively uncommon. Moreover, I don't know of any Massachusetts Republican State Rep. candidate that has succeeded in a district that gives 34 point advantages to national Democratic candidates.

Republicans feel that they have a strong candidate with Carol Claros, but it will likely take a serious misstep by the eventual Democratic nominee to provide a GOP victory on September 10.

Boston mayoral poll shows Marty Walsh with strong regional support

The recent Suffolk University/Boston Herald poll of the race for Boston Mayor showed a race without a strong front-runner, with many candidates struggling for name recognition, and with 40% of the likely voters unwilling to choose a candidate to support. While City Councilor John Connolly was slightly ahead in the overall ballot test, State Representative Marty Walsh showed significant regional strength in areas in and around his district in Dorchester, in the South End, and also in Alston and Brighton.

The poll showed Walsh as the leader in Wards 7, 13, 16, 17, and 21, and tied for the lead in Ward 8. Walsh completely dominated wards 7 and 16, which significantly overlap his State Rep. district.

Areas of strength for Rep. Marty Walsh

The challenge for Rep. Walsh will be to build on these geographic areas of strength and expand his support into other areas of Boston.

Rob Consalvo also has a smaller district-based geographical bump in his home Ward of 18, and Daniel Conley and John Connolly dominate Ward 20, which holds their West Roxbury neighborhood. It will be interesting to see if this geographic divide holds in subsequent polls, and how the seeming deep support of Walsh in the area of his district plays out against John Connolly's shallower, but geographically wider support.

Democrats Ed Markey and Elizabeth Warren followed different paths to statewide victory in Massachusetts

While the last two elections for U.S. Senator in Massachusetts resulted in a 10 point victory by Ed Markey over Gabriel Gomez and an 8 point victory by Elizabeth Warren over Scott Brown, Markey and Warren showed that Democratic candidates for statewide office in Massachusetts can follow different paths to victory while appealing to somewhat different constituencies. Elizabeth Warren's populist message resonated in lower income areas, while Markey did better, on average, in affluent communities. Geographically, Warren did better than Markey in Central and Southwest Massachusetts, while Markey did better in far-Western Massachusetts and especially well in his native Metrowest region.

The following map shows the margin between Ed Markey's and Elizabeth Warren's percentage of the vote in each of the Commonwealth's 351 cities and towns—green indicates area of strength for Markey, and blue indicates area of strength for Warren (click on the map to open an interactive version):

A regression analysis of various demographic and geographic factors points to per-capita income and geography as highly correlated with the Markey-Warren margin.

Per-Capita Income

Elizabeth Warren's populist message of creating an even playing field for middle class families through increased Wall Street accountability, worked particularly well in lower income municipalities, while Ed Markey's message focusing on gun control and women's reproductive health combined with his long-time work on environmental issues appealed to more affluent voters. The candidates' appeal to different income demographics is also apparent when looking at simple averages—the towns and cities where Elizabeth Warren had a larger margin that Ed Markey had an average per-capita income of $31,246, while Markey's municipalities had an average per-capita income of $40,172.

Geography

While there was significant correlation between a voter's county and the Markey-Warren margin difference, the most striking difference was in the Boston Metrowest and Middlesex County area. This is not surprising given that this was home to Ed Markey's congressional district and is the area where he had the greatest name recognition. The other geographic differences may have been more a consequence of the income demographic discussed earlier.

Towns with largest margin difference

The towns where Markey outperformed Warren the most are dominated by high per-capita income towns in Boston's Metrowest region like Lexington, Acton, Concord and Wellesley, with a sprinkling of more affluent Western Massachusetts towns.

The areas where Warren out-performed Markey by the highest margins are primarily lower income towns in Southwest Massachusetts like Russell, Chicopee, and Springfield, with a sprinkling of Central Massachusetts cities and towns like Southbridge and Fitchburg.

Complete City and Town Listing

Here is a complete list of the Markey-Warren margins alphabetically by city and town.

Polling average nailed the Markey/Gomez Massachusetts Senate result

On Tuesday, June 25, Congressman Ed Markey defeated financier Gabriel Gomez with a 54.8% share of the vote to Gomez's 44.8% share. A normalized polling average of the 17 independent polls of the race had Markey with 55.5% and Gomez with 44.5%, less than a percentage point difference.

While it is easy, in hindsight, to look back and pick the individual polls that were close to the final result, the result being close to the average of all polls is significant. Averaging polls smooths out differences in polling methodology and sampling variability and error, and gives a result over a much larger pool of voters. Using the average prevents us from needing a crystal ball to know which poll is significant, and which one is off base.

Political reporters or pundits will often quote the most recent poll, or sometimes cherry pick a poll that tells the story they are trying to tell. Many quoted the June 19 Herald poll with Markey up 20 points as a sign that Markey was on his way to a blowout. It is important to look at outliers like these in the context of the other polls, and polling averages give us a tool to better understand all of the data points.

In the following graph the yellow and green lines represent the final average of the normalized polling numbers and the black squares show the final results, just inside the average lines.

There is a great deal more analysis that can be done of the Markey/Gomez results, but it is clear that polling of the race and the resulting averages gave us a pretty clear picture of the state of the race before yesterday's voting.