A Gomez win over Markey very unlikely even if GOP targets are reached

An article written by Alexandra Joffe in The Hill congressional newspaper reports that the Republican Party sees a narrow path to victory for Gabriel Gomez against Ed Markey in the Massachusetts special election to replace John Kerry. However, the numbers don't add up—a Gomez win is very unlikely, even if he achieves the GOP targets described in the article.

The current aggregated polling averages for the Markey/Gomez race predict that Gabriel Gomez will win 16% of the Democratic vote, 87% of the Republican vote, and 54% of the Independent/Unenrolled vote as indicated in the table below. Combined with a likely turnout (also based on the polling averages) of 38%/14%/47% for D/R/I puts Gomez with a likely result of 44% of the vote on June 25.

The Joffe article says "Republicans familiar with the race say they’re aiming to win 55-60 percent of independents and 15-18 percent of Democrats to take the seat."

Let's suppose that Gabriel Gomez hits the high end of those targets, winning 18% of the Democratic vote and 60% of the Independent vote, giving Markey 82% of Democrats and 40% of Independents. These Democratic and Independent margins would still only multiply out to 48% of the final vote for Gomez and a winning 52% of the vote for Markey.

However, the polling has been remarkably consistent throughout the race, and it is more likely that the Gomez will win Independents by around 10 points. There is very little time for Gomez to make up his large gaps with Independent women, and Markey has a very high probability of winning the special election on June 25.

Latest Markey/Gomez polls show very slight tightening of race

Markey still holds strong lead with two weeks left

The latest polls from Suffolk University and WBUR/MassINC of the Massachusetts special election race between Ed Markey and Gabriel Gomez provide some evidence of a tightening race. A comparison between a simple average of all of the polls, with a weighted average giving stronger weighting to the most recent polls, shows Markey moving from about a 9 point lead over Gomez, to an 8 point lead. However, this is hardly good news for Gomez as candidates rarely overcome an 8 point deficit with two weeks until an election.

If you have been following the Mass. Numbers Markey/Gomez polling average page, you have seen that there have been very few surprises as new polling results are released.

In addition to calculating the simple average of the polls, I have also given weighted average, based on the number of days since the last day the poll was conducted. This weighted average shifts the margin from about 9 points to about 8 points. While this does indicate a slight tightening of the race, the polling has been remarkably stable, with all of the polls moving very close above and below the average.

The fact that Congressman Markey continues to hang close to even with men, and to be winning women by about 17 points, combined with Gomez's inability to increase his margin with Independent and Unenrolled voters, means that a Gomez win continues to be a very, very long shot.

Latest Markey/Gomez poll is more of the same: evidence of a solidifying Markey lead

Yesterday, New England College released another poll of the Ed Markey/Gabriel Gomez special senate election race and it does little to change the evidence that Congressman Markey has a sizable lead. The party and gender breakdowns from the NEC poll also align well with previous surveys of the race. Financier Gabriel Gomez is probably hoping for a game changing performance in the upcoming debates, but time is running out and all signs point towards a Markey win on June 25.

Averaging the polls together evens out inconsistencies in polling methods and gives us a much larger sample of voters. The average is largely unchanged by the poll, although the number of undecided voters in the NEC poll is smaller than all of the previous polls, most likely because of the polling question and methodology. The Markey advantage continues to hover around 10 points.

We can normalize the polls to get a better feel for what an actual election result might be like by choosing a method to divide up the undecided voters between the two candidates. I have chosen to divide them up equally. Normalizing the polls also gives us some more consistency between the polls. We again end up with about a 10-point lead for Markey.

The new poll is also consistent with our averages in terms of Markey's margin among men and women. The NEC poll shows Markey even with men (the average is Markey +1) and has Markey +20 with women (our average was +16). As I wrote in a previous post, Gomez will have to completely change these margins in order to have a chance on June 25.

The NEC poll is also reasonably consistent with the averages in terms of party breakdown. The higher percentages for both Markey and Gomez in each category primarily come from the undecided percentages, rather than cutting into each other's vote share. I wrote in a previous post that Gomez cannot win by turning out more Independent voters, but rather needs to increase his margins with both Democrats and Independents to stand a chance.

The latest poll brings more of the same with a solidifying lead for Ed Markey that will be very hard for Gabriel Gomez to overcome in the short time before the June 25 special election.

Gomez will have a hard time overcoming Markey's 16 point lead with women voters

Markey has consistent lead in the numbers and on the issues

There have been six public polls of the Massachusetts Senate special election between Congressman Ed Markey and financier Gabriel Gomez, and an averaging of the polls shows Markey with a one point lead among men and a whopping 16 point lead among women. Markey holds positions on women's reproductive health and gun control issues that are more popular with the majority of Massachusetts women than those held by Gomez, making it unlikely that Markey will relinquish that lead.

A recent New York Times article detailed Markey's advantage with women and his efforts to solidify and increase his lead among Democratic and Independent women by emphasizing Gomez's unpopular positions on women's health issues and assault weapons. It is clear from the polling of the race that Gomez cannot win without moving his margin with men into the positive double-digits and significantly cutting into Markey's advantage with women, an unlikely scenario given Gomez's stances.

Over the time period of the six polls, Markey has moved from a small disadvantage with men in the first three polls, to a small advantage. He has held a significant double-digit lead with women in every single poll of the race.

Martha Coakley, the Democrat vying against Scott Brown in the 2010 special senate election, also had an advantage among women, according to the last several polls of the race. However, her advantage was about two points, while Brown held a large double-digit 13 point lead over Coakley with men. There were no exit polls of the January 19, 2010 vote.

Gabriel Gomez would need to come close to these sorts of margins to stand a chance on June 25, but the numbers seem to be moving in the opposite direction. Ed Markey's margin with women is solid in the double-digits, and his standing with men has improved, not worsened. Gomez would most likely need a game changer to pull out a win, while Markey has the easier task of making sure likely women voters understand Gomez's positions on the issues.

A large independent voter turnout is unlikely to bring Gomez a victory over Markey

Some recent news coverage on the topic of the Massachusetts Senate special election seems to imply that a large turnout of independent voters and a low turnout for Democrats would lead to a Gabriel Gomez victory on June 25. A detailed look at the party ID breakdown from all of the Markey/Gomez polls shows that given the candidates' current levels of support, even an unprecedented turnout of independent voters at the expense of Democrats would not lead to a Gomez win.

This table shows the party ID breakdown for all of the public polls that have been conducted for the race between Ed Markey and Gabriel Gomez to represent Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate. While there is similarity across the polls, we get a more statistically relevant result by averaging the polls together. Both of the candidates achieves roughly the same percentage of support from his own party—Markey with 83% of Democrats and Gomez with 84% of Republicans—while Gomez holds a significant 16 point advantage over Markey with independent voters, 58% to 42%.

Each one of the polls also provides its own take on the expected party breakdown of the likely voting electorate. The overall estimate of turnout obtained by averaging the party ID numbers of all six polls give us a 40% Democratic, 14% Republican, and 45% Independent electorate. In this scenario, Markey wins by 10 points, 55% to 45%.

But what would the results be if the party ID breakdown of the electorate on June 25 was different? The bottom part of the table shows a variety of scenarios, including an estimated party breakdown of the Coakley/Brown race (based on late polling), and the 2010 State Election and 2012 Presidential elections (based on exit polls). None of those scenarios puts Gomez closer than 7 points to Markey.

We can also consider the most Gomez-favorable of the party ID breakdowns from the six Markey/Gomez polls—35%-13%-52% in the MassINC poll—which still puts Markey up 6 points. The most extreme scenario is the last where I take the original 40%-14%-45% breakdown predicted by the polls and take 10% of the vote away from Democratic voters and put all 10% with the Independents, giving a 30%-14%-55% split. This most extreme and unlikely of the Independent voter expectations still leaves Gomez 2 points behind Markey at 51% to 49%. It seems that Gomez cannot guarantee a win by shifting the electorate from less Democratic to more Independent.

So how did Scott Brown win the 2010 special election with a generic looking turnout of 41% Democrats, 17% Republicans, and 41% Independents?

The final polls before the January 19, 2010 election suggest that Scott Brown was able to win by obtaining the support of 94% of Republicans, by chipping into the Democratic base with the support of 23% of Democrats, and by dominating among Independents with an amazing 36 point advantage among unenrolled voters.

The history from the 2010 Scott Brown win combined with current polling suggests that Gabriel Gomez is unlikely to win the June 25 special election by simply increasing the turnout of independent voters—instead, he would need to fundamentally shift his level of support with the voters of all three groups. Fundamental shifts in the preferences of the voters, while possible given the upcoming debates and likely ad blitz, are becoming less and less likely with only four weeks until the election.

Making sense of the Markey/Gomez poll differences

Differences are probably due to polling method and likely voter screen—averaging gives a better estimate of Markey's actual lead over Gomez

There have been four polls conducted to gauge voter sentiment in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race between Democratic Congressman Ed Markey and Republican financial executive Gabriel Gomez. While all of the polls agree that Markey leads the race, the surveys vary widely as to the size of the lead, with a 4 point spread in the PPP poll at the lower end and a much larger 14 point lead for Markey in the recent Suffolk poll.

How should we make sense of the variable polling results in order to find the current state of the race? Rather than cherry-picking a favorable poll for either candidate, we can get a more statistically valid estimate by averaging the polls together, giving Markey 46% and Gomez 38%, with an 8 point lead for Markey. The averaging process greatly increases the sample size and can smooth out polling inconsistencies. Interestingly, this four poll average matches the results of the MassINC poll.

What would explain the differences in the polls?

All of the interviews for the four polls of the Massachusetts U.S. Senate special election were conducted in the single week starting Wednesday, May 1 and ending this past Tuesday, May 7. So what explains the different results between the different surveys?

The biggest difference between the first two polls conducted by the Emerson College Polling Society and Public Policy Polling, and last two polls conducted by MassINC Polling and Suffolk University Political Research Center, is the use of automated polling vs. live interviews. Automated polling systems are not allowed to call cell phones, and while pollsters make an attempt to correct for the different demographics for those people who only have cell phones, automation can lead to different polling outcomes. There is also evidence to suggest that non-cell-phone polling underestimates Democratic candidates' chances.

The automated/live distinction cannot be used to explain the difference between the 8 point margin seen by the MassINC and 14 point lead seen by the Suffolk poll, since both surveys used live interviews. While the different results might be because of various methodological difference or sampling error, a strong explanation is the tighter likely voter screen used by the Suffolk poll:

Using a split sample of landline and cell phone numbers, the Suffolk poll used a tight screen to filter out voters who weren't certain to vote or who couldn't name when the special general election would be held.

It is indeed a tight screen when the respondent needs to identify when the election will be held, especially for an off-season special election being held in June. There is evidence from the special primary polling that more engaged voters like these are more likely to support Markey, which may explain some of his larger advantage in the Suffolk poll.

Name recognition

An 8 point Markey lead with 47 days until the election does not, by any means, guarantee a Democratic victory on June 25, rather it can give us an idea the gap that Gomez would need to close. The challenge for both candidates will be to define himself on his own terms before being defined by the opposition. Gomez has a bigger risk/reward possibility with a full 37% of the respondents not having an opinion about him.

As you might expect, Markey has higher favorables and unfavorables as a more mainstream candidate. Strong advantages for Markey are the great organizational capabilities of the Massachusetts Democratic party and policy positions that closely match those of the Massachusetts electorate.

While it is interesting to look at the differences between the four senate polls, we are likely to be better served by averaging the results together, giving a more robust view of the state of race to replace John Kerry. The result shows Congressman Markey in a strong position with 47 days to go.

Survey Details

• Emerson College Polling Society survey
• Public Pollicy Polling survey
• MassINC/WBUR survey
• Suffolk University Political Research Center/WHDH survey

An interactive map of the First Suffolk State Senate election results

You can click on the map below to access an interactive version with precinct-by-precinct results for the Boston part of the First Suffolk State Senate Democratic primary election between Rep. Nick Collins, Maureen Dahill, and the winner, Rep. Linda Dorcena Forry. The results were obtained from The Dorchester Reporter and are not official, but give a good feel for the regional strengths of Collins and Forry.