Over-performance in Fitchburg pushed Tran over the top in Worcester and Middlesex special election

Zephir slightly over-performed compared to a modeled result in most other towns
by BRENT BENSON

Republican Fitchburg City Councilor Dean Tran defeated three other opponents, including Democratic Leominster City Councilor Sue Chalifoux Zephir, to replace State Senator Jen Flanagan in the Worcester and Middlesex senate district by a margin of 607 votes (unofficial results).

Tran's victory was mainly due to a staggering 19 point victory in his home city of Fitchburg, which has a strong lean towards Democrats in most elections. Fitchburg has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+9. Our state legislative regression model predicted a Democratic vote share of 56% for an open seat in a non-presidential year.



Sue Chalifoux Zephir out-performed the model in most of the other municipalities, including an 11 point over-performance in the much-smaller town of Sterling, and kept it reasonably close in the others.

Zephir would have stood a better chance if she could have built a home field advantage in Leominster, similar to Tran's in Fitchburg, but fellow City Councilor Claire Freda came within range of Tran and Zephir with over a thousand votes, by far Freda's strongest showing in any municipality. It seems that Freda's success in Leominster prevented Zephir from running up the numbers in the largest vote-producing city in the district.

Senator-elect Tran will serve out the rest of the current term and will be up for re-election next November, 2018. He will have the advantage of incumbency, but will face a much larger Democratically motivated electorate in a highly-charged mid-term election.

A look at the Worcester and Middlesex State Senate special election

Another classic swing district special election
by BRENT BENSON

There is a special election today to fill the vacant Worcester and Middlesex state senate seat, left vacant by former Senator Jen Flanagan who left to take a seat on the newly-created MA Cannabis Control Commission. There are four candidates vying for the seat: Leominster City Councilor and Democratic nominee Sue Chalifoux Zephir; Fitchburg City Councilor and Republican nominee Dean Tran; Green-Rainbow nominee Charlene DiCalogero; and Leominster City Councilor Claire Freda, who is running as an independent.

The District

The Worcester and Middlesex is a classic swing district with a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+2. While it has been held by a Democrat since 1991, a slightly different configuration of the district was held for many years by Republicans Mary Padula of Lunenburg and Robert A. Hall of Fitchburg.

(Click here for an interactive version of the map.)

The precincts range from the D+22 Fitchburg 5-B to the R+10 Townsend 1st, which is in the top 20 most Republican precincts in the state.



The cities of Clinton, Gardner, and Fitchburg are fairly blue along with the towns of Berlin and Bolton, while the remaining towns of Lancaster, Lunenburg, Sterling, Townsend, and Westminster, with Townsend leading the way with an overall PVI of R+7.

Fundraising

Democrat Sue Chalifoux Zephir raised and spent over twice as much money as GOP candidate Dean Tran across the pre-primary and pre-election periods, while independent candidate Claire Freda and Green-Rainbow candidate Charlene DiCalogero were off the pace by an order of magnitude.



Fundraising and spending are not determining factors, but they are a strong indication of candidate strength.

Special Election

The race is essentially a toss-up in our model, with the slightest advantage given to the GOP in a non-presidential election year without an incumbent, although a Democratic win by 10 points could easily happen within the model's 90% confidence interval.

While 3rd party and independent candidates, on average, play a very small role in most races with Democrats and Republicans winning the lion's share of the votes, they can play an important role when the margins are very small. While I believe that Sue Chalifoux Zephir will dominate among progressives and Democrats, Claire Freda—a well-known Leominster City Councilor—was endorsed by the Fitchburg Sentinel, and has a chance to take some votes from the major party candidates.

The state party establishments have been all-in on this race with every major Massachusetts Democrat putting in work for Zephir, while Charlie Baker has worked hard for Tran, and the state GOP has delivered some last minute attack ads on Zephir in the closing day of the race.

There is no easy pick for the winner of the Worcester and Middlesex special election, with the race coming down to a slight GOP lean in the model vs. strong fundraising by Zephir and a seemingly pro-Democratic atmosphere indicated in several special elections so far this year.

Polls and preliminary data point toward a Walsh victory in Boston mayoral race

A remarkably consistent margin has separated Walsh and Jackson in polls and preliminary voting
by BRENT BENSON

All of the public data measuring voter preference in the 2017 Boston mayoral race show a gap in the low thirty point range, pointing toward a large victory by incumbent Marty Walsh over challenger City Councilor Tito Jackson on Tuesday, November 7.

There have been three publicly released polls of the race conducted by MassINC, Emerson, and Suffolk, all showing Walsh/Jackson margins in the 31 to 36 point range. The September 26 preliminary election showed a Walsh/Jackson margin of 33 points.



Preliminary result geography

The precinct-by-precinct results from the preliminary show Walsh winning 210 of 254 (83%) of the precincts.

(Click here for an interactive version of the map.)


A look at the preliminary results by neighborhood/planning district show Jackson winning Roxbury by 9 points, while Walsh won all other districts with the largest margin coming in at a whopping 71 points in South Boston.

(Click here for an interactive version of the map.)


Walsh had a small victory over Jackson in Jackson's own City Council District 7, winning 51% of the two-way Walsh/Jackson voters.

Given the consistency of the overall margin in the preliminary results and the polls, it would be a remarkable upset and an indication in some serious polling failures if Marty Walsh is not easily re-elected on November 7.

All signs point to a close outcome in Tuesday's Bristol and Norfolk state senate special election

Bristol and Norfolk is a prototypical swing district

by BRENT BENSON

Heavy hitters from the Massachusetts Democratic and Republican parties have gotten involved in the closing days of the special election campaign to take the open Bristol and Norfolk State Senate seat, previously held by Senator James Tmility (D-Walpole). The candidates will need all the help they can get in a district that could easily go to a Democrat or a Republican.

The resignation of Timilty to take the position of Norfolk County Treasurer has led to a scramble by Democratic, Republican, and Independent candidates vying for the open seat in an October 17. The candidates on the ballot will be Paul Feeney, a progressive Democrat from Foxborough, Jacob Ventura, a conservative Republican from Attleboro, and former TV news reporter Joe Shortsleeve of Medfield who is running as an Independent.

Republican Governor Charlie Baker gave his support to Ventura in an October 7 visit to Attleboro, while Senator Elizabeth Warren endorsed and canvassed with Feeney on Sunday, October 15. Feeney had a similar event with Congressman Joe Kennedy on September 23rd.

Swing District

The Bristol and Norfolk District, held by Democrat Timilty since 2005, is the definition of a Massachusetts swing district with a PVI rating (an average of the last two presidential races compared to the U.S. average) of D+2. This makes it the fifth-most Republican state senate district in Massachusetts.

There are two Democrats elected in more Republican state senate districts: Marc Pacheco in the 1st Plymouth and Bristol (EVEN), and Anne Gobi in the most-Republican Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire, and Middlesex District (R+4). There are three Republican State Senators in more Democratic districts: Patrick O'Connor (Plymouth and Norfolk—D+2), Bruce Tarr (1st Essex and Middlesex—D+3), and Donald Humason (2nd Hampden and Hampshire—D+7).

Our Mass. Numbers regression model, which looks at district PVI and incumbency status, gives an edge to a Democrat in a D+2 race without an incumbent.

The Municipalities

There are seven full towns in the Bristol and Norfolk District—Foxborough, Mansfield, Medfield, Norton, Rehoboth, and Walpole—and parts of the town of Sharon, and the city of Attleboro.

The partisanship of the municipalities range from R+6 in Rehoboth to D+19 in the district's Sharon precincts. Walpole provides the most votes in the last two presidential elections, followed by Mansfield, the Attleboro precincts, and Foxborough.

Bristol and Norfolk Precinct Map

(Click to view interactive map.)


Only Medfield and the Sharon precincts are completely Democratic with respect to PVI, and Rehoboth is the only municipality with completely Republican precincts. The remaining municipalities have both Democratic and Republican precincts.

Fundraising and Expenditures

Campaign fundraising strength is another gauge of candidate strength. Democrat Paul Feeney has outraised and outspent his opponents, raising $76,706 and spending $62,365 as reported on the pre-primary and pre-election reports.

Republican Jacob Ventura raised $39,480 during the same period and spent $40,275, while Independent candidate Joe Shortsleeve raised $5,765 and spent only $3,383.

A wild-card on the spending side is a Republican special interest committee called Jobs First, which has spent $22,772 dollars, mostly on attack ads against Feeney, but also on an a positive ad for Ventura.

Turnout/Third-Party Effects

Special elections normally have very low turnout with only the most motivated voters getting to the polls. The demographic of those hard-core voters normally trends towards older and more conservative, giving a bit of an advantage to Republicans. However, this can be exacerbated or overcome by a strong voter contact and get-out-the-vote efforts by candidates.

It is unclear how Joe Shortsleeve, running as an Independent, will impact Tuesday's vote. Shortsleeve is a bit of enigma, having voted for Trump for President, but saying he will caucus with Democrats in the Senate if elected. Shortsleeve was attacked, along with Feeney, in a Republican mailer, seemingly trying to shore up conservative support for Ventura. However, it is unlikely that Shortsleeve will get too many progressive votes if they know that Shortsleeve supported Trump in 2016.

The new Senator from the Bristol and Norfolk District will likely be the candidate who runs the best voter contact and get-out-the-vote operation on October 17. We could very well end up with another 20 or 100 vote nail-biter.