State Senate race between Brady and Diehl is a tale of two districts

Precinct-by-precinct analysis shows 2nd Plymouth and Bristol district split between Democratic Brockton and right-leaning suburbs
by BRENT BENSON

Massachusetts State Representatives Mike Brady (D-Brockton) and Geoff Diehl (R-Whitman) are facing off in a November 3rd election to replace State Senator Thomas Kennedy as Senator for the 2nd Plymouth and Bristol District.

The 2nd Plymouth and Bristol District has a clear divide between its Democratic-leaning urban center of Brockton, and its more conservative suburbs of Easton (in Bristol County), and East Bridgewater, Halifax, Hanover, Hanson, Plympton, and Whitman (all in Plymouth County).

2nd Plymouth and Bristol Precincts



An analysis of the PVI (Partisan Voter Index, an average of the partisan lean based on the last two Presidential elections) of the district and its precincts bears out this divide. The overall PVI of the district is D+6, which would point towards a narrow victory for a Democrat for an open state legislative seat in Massachusetts.

However, Republican Donald Humason won the 2013 special election to replace State Senator Michael Knapik in the 2nd Hampden and Hampshire District in 2013, which has a PVI of D+8, showing that the seat is winnable by Geoff Diehl and the GOP.

Representative Brady currently represents 12 of the precincts of the senate district, while Representative Diehl represents only 6, which should provide a name recognition boost for Brady.

Money

Geoff Diehl has a definite advantage where money is concerned, receiving backing from outside groups like the Republican State Leadership Committee, a national PAC trying to elect Republicans to state legislatures, and local super donor Christopher Egan (son of EMC founder Dick Egan).

Turnout and ground game

While off-year and special elections normally favor the GOP because of demographic turnout trends, the November 3rd election date corresponds to a contested mayoral race in Brockton, which may even out the turnout between Brockton and the suburbs.

In addition, Mike Brady has built up a strong ground game to identify and get out Democratic voters, bringing in big name supporters like Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Joe Kennedy III.

The result on Tuesday may provide a preview for the 2016 state election where outside GOP groups are planning to finance challengers in many Democratically-held legislative seats, and shed some light on whether a strong Democratic ground game can overcome large GOP money advantages.

Special election for 11th Worcester seat gives advantage to GOP but is winnable by either Palitsch or Kane

by BRENT BENSON

Massachusetts political history has shown it is difficult to unseat an incumbent legislator. So when a legislator resigns—as Matt Beaton and Carlo Basile have done to take key jobs in the new administration of Governor Charlie Baker—there are often strong candidates waiting for a shot at the open seat and the upcoming March 31 special elections to replace Beaton and Basile hold true to form.

The March 3 primary for Basile's First Suffolk State Representative seat had five Democratic candidates and the primary winner—former Basile staffer Adrian Madaro—will almost surely emerge victorious against Independent candidate Joanne Pomodoro in the general election in this incredibly Democratic district.

The Shrewsbury-based Eleventh Worcester State Representative seat that had been held by Republican Matt Beaton, and previously by Republican Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito, has two strong candidates—Democrat Jason Palitsch and Republican Hannah Kane—and the outcome is harder to predict.

While the GOP history of the 11th Worcester seat seems to show a preference of the district's voters for Republicans, President Obama won the district by 16 points in 2008 and 8 points in 2012. The district has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+3, or an average of 3 points more Democratic than the country for the last two presidential elections.

But what does a PVI of D+3 mean in terms of a special legislative election? In order to get a clearer picture I did a regression analysis of the Massachusetts legislative special election results since 2009 and compared them to district PVI.

District Fundamentals

While there are only 16 data points, the results indicate that a D+3 district is likely to elect a GOP legislator, but the range of possible outcomes is very wide. A strong Democratic candidate can win in this district—John Velis won in the less Democratic (D+1 PVI) 4th Hampden District to replace Republican Donald Humason a year ago.

The graph shows the Dem-GOP margin vs. district PVI for all of the Dem/GOP contested special elections for state legislative seats since 2009. The horizontal green line shows the cutoff between a Democratic and GOP win, and the angled blue line is regression line showing the best fit for the data. The Palitsch/Kane point shows where the 11th Worcester PVI of D+3 falls on the regression line. The shaded area shows the confidence interval—it is clear that this data is not strong enough to indicate a sure victory for either party, except in the most Democratic districts with a PVI above D+20.

The following table holds a summary of all of the legislative special elections since 2009.

Fundraising

Both candidates have done a good job raising campaign dollars with Palitsch raising a total of $102,169 as of yesterday's pre-election report, while Kane has raised $118,630. The big difference comes in spending, as Palitsch spent all but $4,729, while Kane holds onto $71,428. Leaving this much cash on the table a week before the election seems to indicate confidence in a win by Kane—it doesn't make sense to reserve that much money for election day ground game or to leave that much money in the bank in a close race.

If the race ends up being close, the up-front spending by Palitsch might be a factor, but the similarity in fundraising totals does not seem to provide a game-changing element to overcome the district fundamentals. 

State Senate 2015-2016 Democratic majority leadership and committee assignments

by BRENT BENSON

Massachusetts State Senate President Stan Rosenberg announced leadership and committee assignments for the Democratic members of the Senate for the 2015-2016 legislative session.

Leadership

Majority Leader: Chandler
President Pro Tempore: Pacheco
Assistant Majority Leader: Creem

Assistant Majority Leader: Joyce

Assistant Majority Leader: Montigny
Majority Whip: Petruccelli
Assistant Majority Whip: Donnelly

Senate Standing Committees

Ways and Means
Spilka - Chair
DiDemenico
Jehlen - Assistant Vice Chair
Brownsberger
Chang-Diaz
Donnelly
Donoghue
Downing
Keenan
Kennedy
McGee
Moore
Petruccelli
Rush
Timility

Intergovernmental Affairs
Dorcena Forry - Chair
L'Italien- Vice Chair
Gobi
Moore
Rodrigues

Redistricting
Downing - Chair
Joyce - Vice Chair
Chang-Diaz
L'Italien
Timilty

Rules

Montigny - Chair

Creem - Vice Chair

Chandler

Spilka

Bills in Third Reading

Joyce - Chair

Petruccelli - Vice Chair

Donoghue

Downing

Steering and Policy

Wolf - Chair

Lewis - Vice Chair

Chang-Diaz

O'Connor Ives

Personnel and Administration

Rush - Chair

O'Connor Ives - Vice Chair

Donnelly

Donoghue

Pacheco

Children's Caucus

McGee - Chair

Ethics

Creem - Chair

Brownsberger - Vice Chair

Chandler

DiDomenico

Post-Audit and Oversight

Barrett - Chair

Downing - Vice Chair

Lewis

Moore

Welch

Bonding, Capital Expenditures, and State Assets

Keenan - Chair

Chang-Diaz - Vice Chair

Donnelly

Donoghue

Moore

Global Warming

Pacheco - Chair

Eldridge - Vice Chair

Barrett

Downing

McGee

Joint Standing Committees

Financial Services

Eldridge - Chair

Lesser - Vice Chair

Keenan

O'Connor Ives

Rodrigues

Economic Development and Emerging Technology

Donoghue - Chair

Gobi - Vice Chair

Barrett

Keenan

Lesser

McGee

Education

Chang-Diaz - Chair

Jehlen - Vice Chair

Dorcena Forry

Lewis

L'Italien

Housing

Dorcena Forry - Chair

Keenan - Vice Chair

Chandler

Gobi

Jehlen

Public Safety and Homeland

Timilty - Chair

Moore - Vice Chair

Chang-Diaz

Flanagan

Welch

Revenue

Rodrigues - Chair

Timilty - Vice Chair

Downing

Lesser

Wolf

Higher Education

Moore - Chair

Donoghue - Vice Chair

Downing

L'Italien

O'Connor Ives

Mental Health and Substance Abuse

Flanagan - Chair

Lovely - Vice

Donnelly

Dorcena Forry

Eldridge

Telecom, Utilities, and Energy

Downing - Chair

Pacheco - Vice Chair

Gobi

Joyce

Wolf

State Administration and Regulatory Oversight

Lovely - Chair

Eldridge - Vice Chair

Barrett

Keenan

Rodrigues

Tourism, Arts, and Cultural Development

Lesser - Chair

Downing - Vice Chair

Eldridge

Lovely

Wolf

Community Development and Small Business

O'Connor Ives - Chair

Rush - Vice Chair

L'Italien

Rodrigues

Wolf

Children and Families

Flanagan - Chair

Lovely - Vice Chair

Chang-Diaz

Keenan

Lewis

Public Health

Lewis - Chair

Flanagan - Vice Chair

Lesser

Lovely

Timilty

Judiciary

Brownsberger - Chair

Keenan - Vice Chair

Chang-Diaz

Creem

Jehlen

Environment, Natural Resources, and Agriculture

Gobi - Chair

Rush - Vice Chair

Eldridge

McGee

Timilty

Public Service

Timilty - Chair

Rodrigues - Vice Chair

Barrett

Donnelly

Kennedy

Elder Affairs

Jehlen - Chair

L'Italien - Vice Chair

Barrett

Gobi

Lesser

Consumer Protection and Licensure

Kennedy - Chair

Petruccelli - Vice Chair

O'Connor Ives

Rodrigues

Timilty

Transportation

McGee - Chair

Keenan - Vice Chair

Donoghue

Dorcena Forry

Lesser

Rush

Veterans and Federal Affairs

Rush - Chair

Kennedy - Vice Chair

Barrett

Gobi

Lesser

Municipalities and Regional Government

L'Italien - Chair

Lovely - Vice Chair

Brownsberger

Donaghue

Timilty

Health Care Financing

Welch - Chair

Montigny - Vice Chair

Barrett

Dorcena Forry

Joyce

L'Italien

Election Laws

Kennedy - Chair

Donnelly - Vice Chair

Brownsberger

DiDomenico

Welch

Labor and Workforce Development

Wolf - Chair

Barrett - Vice Chair

Donoghue

Lewis

Moore

Boston Olympics poll shows taxpayer funding a primary concern of opponents

Respondents who support Boston's bid believe funding will come from private sources, opponents think taxpayers will foot the bill
by BRENT BENSON

A new poll from WBUR and MassINC Polling finds that 50% of Boston respondents support a Boston-based Olympics, while 33% oppose, and it appears that a some of the opposition is based on who will pay for the construction and hosting costs.

Forty-six percent of those who support a Boston Olympics think the funding will come from private sources; 35% of the supporters think funding will come from taxpayer funds; while 19% don't know.

On the other hand, a full 83% of the opponents of a Boston olympics believe that taxpayers will foot the bill for a Boston Olympics, with 7% counting on private money, and 11% who don't know.

If Mayor Marty Walsh and other Boston Olympic proponents want to increase public support, convincing them that a minimum amount of taxpayer funds will be needed might go a long way to improving Boston's Olympics prospects.