tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-39761521817237031052024-03-13T18:31:22.844-04:00Mass. NumbersA quantitative look at Massachusetts politics and policyBrent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.comBlogger95125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-64168520489362631952022-08-21T20:43:00.006-04:002022-08-21T20:46:09.809-04:00Announcing the new Mass. Numbers<p> <i>The blog will now include code and data, along with analysis</i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span></p><p>Please check out the announcement post for the re-platforming of the Mass. Numbers blog:</p><p><a href="https://www.massnumbers.us/posts/welcome/">https://www.massnumbers.us/posts/welcome/</a></p><p>We have the goal of eventually bringing over these blogspot-based posts, but first the plan is to publish some detailed posts on the upcoming September primaries and November general elections.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMtFy51P3Plf0BUJn0Ug2SKvDJp8q4uMO5r62qz_14WzKGgCfUw6Q9DTSBxRfzqb-RnD5Kpyt7cV_rTvgdB641lBBLgfKFK3khUHFXn_jbNynCKI4OEoczL0g8DH-2DH-xyw1PqVu_50knDK9cL-OYNh8ni9cCPE5g9n_JP-mEfgOcTLfAYxVkxr9BBA/s1050/ma_shape.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1050" data-original-width="1050" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMtFy51P3Plf0BUJn0Ug2SKvDJp8q4uMO5r62qz_14WzKGgCfUw6Q9DTSBxRfzqb-RnD5Kpyt7cV_rTvgdB641lBBLgfKFK3khUHFXn_jbNynCKI4OEoczL0g8DH-2DH-xyw1PqVu_50knDK9cL-OYNh8ni9cCPE5g9n_JP-mEfgOcTLfAYxVkxr9BBA/s320/ma_shape.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-82532232525655638132020-11-14T10:34:00.001-05:002020-11-14T11:00:53.238-05:00A look at Biden's 2020 performance in Massachusetts compared to Clinton in 2016<p><i>Biden did better overall with some evidence of underperformance in municipalities with large numbers of hispanic voters</i></p><p><span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span></p><p>While we have yet to get the final results of the 2020 presidential election in Massachusetts, unofficial results show that President-elect Joe Biden outperformed Secretary Hillary Clinton in the Commonwealth, and that this better performance was exhibited in most cities and towns. Four of the municipalities where Biden did significantly worse than Clinton are distinctive in terms of having the highest percentage of hispanic residents, giving some evidence to what seems to be a nationwide phenomenon of Biden doing worse than Clinton with hispanic voters.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vR7Su2Qpg6Y/X6_vcfhA7XI/AAAAAAAAKRo/SARGmGOg-5MrbGxJr33cpbUGcLZWs9AEwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1563/ma_compare_16_20_pres_margins.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1001" data-original-width="1563" height="410" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vR7Su2Qpg6Y/X6_vcfhA7XI/AAAAAAAAKRo/SARGmGOg-5MrbGxJr33cpbUGcLZWs9AEwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h410/ma_compare_16_20_pres_margins.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><p>This graphic shows the actual relationship between Biden'20 and Clinton'16 two-party margin as a solid blue linear regression line. Compare this to the dashed black line which represents a hypothetical identical margin in 2016 and 2020 and you can see the overall improvement in Biden's margins. </p><p>Municipalities below the dashed black line are cities and towns where Biden underperformed Secretary Clinton and the vertical distance below the line is the magnitude of the margin difference.</p><p>The four cities of Lawrence, Chelsea, Holyoke, and Springfield have significantly worse numbers for Biden, with Lawrence giving Clinton a margin of 70 points and Biden a margin of 49—a pretty amazing 21 point swing. It is also notable that these four cities have the highest percentage of hispanic residents in Massachusetts according to 2017 American Community Survey of the U.S. Census Bureau.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lbRljIsI874/X6_y8tr4EbI/AAAAAAAAKR0/JkkCiPQYdnEbOJ3qXeuURkbWslYhs71wwCLcBGAsYHQ/s337/ma_biggest_change_cities.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="78" data-original-width="337" height="93" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lbRljIsI874/X6_y8tr4EbI/AAAAAAAAKR0/JkkCiPQYdnEbOJ3qXeuURkbWslYhs71wwCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h93/ma_biggest_change_cities.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>We need data at a finer granularity to see how significant the relationship is between Biden/Clinton margin change and percentage of hispanic voters. In particular, it is important to compare areas of similar population (as opposed to municipalities that go from towns with 100s of voters to cities with 100s of thousands of voters) and to control for other demographic differences.</div><div><br /></div><div>It is also worth noting that while we are focusing on changes in the margin, all of these mentioned margins remain incredibly blue/Democratic. </div><div><br /></div><div>Here are the Clinton to Biden margin changes for all 351 municipalities in the Commonwealth.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U00J0253Nyo/X6_4jW3IjRI/AAAAAAAAKSA/l1L-qGkvQ7w0uY3x2tPgQHibf5mlNJpFgCLcBGAsYHQ/s5283/ma_biggest_change_city_towns.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="5283" data-original-width="384" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-U00J0253Nyo/X6_4jW3IjRI/AAAAAAAAKSA/l1L-qGkvQ7w0uY3x2tPgQHibf5mlNJpFgCLcBGAsYHQ/s16000/ma_biggest_change_city_towns.jpg" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><p><br /></p>Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-57684128777184750792020-08-29T15:14:00.003-04:002020-08-29T20:57:04.811-04:00Comparing the latest Markey/Kennedy US Senate polls<p><i>Markey leads by an average of 10 points with few positives for Kennedy</i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span></p><p>Three recent polls of the Massachusetts race for U.S. Senate between Senator Ed Markey and Congressman Joe Kennedy III all have positive news for the incumbent, Markey. While Kennedy leads with voters with no college degree, non-white, low-income, moderate, and conservative voters, Markey leads in the larger groups of likely Democratic voters—college graduates, whites, mid- and high-income, and liberal voters—giving him a relatively large lead of 10 points, considering all three polls.</p><p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-k8M7zQS0sBA/X0qbWZkLagI/AAAAAAAAKKk/L2H4hI53wdIgWs8PCJQRjCXvulRU-m_YACLcBGAsYHQ/s920/ma_senate_poll_overview.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="198" data-original-width="920" height="110" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-k8M7zQS0sBA/X0qbWZkLagI/AAAAAAAAKKk/L2H4hI53wdIgWs8PCJQRjCXvulRU-m_YACLcBGAsYHQ/w513-h110/ma_senate_poll_overview.png" width="513" /></a></p><p>The polls were conducted by <a href="https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/massachusetts" target="_blank">Suffolk University Political Research Center</a>, <a href="https://www.uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/" target="_blank">UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion Polls</a>, and <a href="https://www.dataforprogress.org/" target="_blank">Data for Progress</a> between August 13 and August 25. The Suffolk poll was conducted with live phone interviews. The UMass Lowell poll was conducted with an online panel matched to sample demographics, and the Data for Progress poll used text-to-web and online modes.</p><p>The sample sizes varied from 500 to 800 respondents and all numbers in this article are the leaned voter preference, meaning that voters who were unsure were asked again to make a choice for whom they would likely vote.</p><p>Averaging all of the interviews together puts the Markey margin at 10 points.</p><p><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mGiBzqx7ujY/X0qbWXvVicI/AAAAAAAAKKo/4y2f_umeebcD0n3FeGXiNCq6eU2X8CkgQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1282/ma_senate_poll_top_lines.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="230" data-original-width="1282" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mGiBzqx7ujY/X0qbWXvVicI/AAAAAAAAKKo/4y2f_umeebcD0n3FeGXiNCq6eU2X8CkgQCLcBGAsYHQ/s640/ma_senate_poll_top_lines.png" width="640" /></a></p><p>Comparing the available cross-tabs for the polls gives some useful information and also raises some questions.</p><p>The polls are not in agreement on male/female voter preference. The Suffolk poll shows males preferring Markey at a higher margin than female voters, 21 to 1, while the UMass Lowell poll shows an almost opposite finding with male/female Markey margins of 5 to 18. Data for Progress shows similar voter preferences for men and women with margins of 10 and 6 for Markey.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-go_S0lOiyRc/X0qosnentEI/AAAAAAAAKK8/EDwZ5iFudJcw9L_tXT8UNkcry7-Y_AZjgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1274/ma_senate_cross_tab_comparison.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1190" data-original-width="1274" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-go_S0lOiyRc/X0qosnentEI/AAAAAAAAKK8/EDwZ5iFudJcw9L_tXT8UNkcry7-Y_AZjgCLcBGAsYHQ/s640/ma_senate_cross_tab_comparison.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>The polls were also not in agreement on age-related candidate preference with the Suffolk poll showing relatively little difference between the preferences of respondents over and under 45 years old (8/10 for Markey), while UMass Lowell and Data for Progress polls showed Kennedy with much higher support with those under 45 (with 16 and 15 point margins for Kennedy) and Markey with much higher support among those 46 and up with margins of 27 and 37 points.<div><br /></div><div>All of the polls agreed that Kennedy is more popular with respondents without a college degree, while Markey is more popular with college degree-holding voters.</div><div><br /></div><div>Data for Progress did not provide cross-tab breakdowns for our other areas of consideration, but the Suffolk and UMass Lowell polls agree that Markey is more popular with self-identified liberals, while Kennedy does better with self-identified moderates and conservatives. Both polls also point toward a preference for voters with incomes of less than $50,000 being more favorable to Kennedy, while mid- and high-income voters are better for Markey.</div><div><br /></div><div>Suffolk also included information on region and urbanicity, which show Markey doing better in rural areas and the western and northeastern parts of Massachusetts, while Kennedy keeps it about even in the Boston/Suffolk region, and out-performs Markey in the Southeast and Cape/Islands region. Most of Kennedy's congressional district is in the Southeast region.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Early Voting </b></div><div><br /></div><div>Suffolk provided a breakdown of how many respondents had already voted (21%) and the preference of those voters—62% for Markey and 32% for Kennedy—with margin of +20 for Markey. </div><div><br /></div><div>While polling primary elections is very difficult, given problems with identifying likely voters exacerbated by the uncertainty introduced by the COVID-19 pandemic, these polls are good news for Markey and bad news for Kennedy. Even if there is a large polling error and/or an ongoing shift and movement toward Kennedy underway, there is already some locked in early vote which looks like it was positive for Markey. That being said, the race has already shifted multiple times and a Kennedy win is not out of the question.</div><div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p></div>Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-32456563880065349102020-03-06T09:54:00.001-05:002020-03-06T10:16:02.806-05:00Partisanship, education, and income were significant factors in MA presidential primary vote share<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
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The big story out of the Super Tuesday Presidential primaries was the unprecedented Biden surge that put the former Vice President in the strongest position to win the 2020 Democratic nomination. The surge was so strong that it pushed Joe Biden past both Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts. Warren and Sanders had been vying for first place in the pre-South Carolina polls, with Biden running a distant third.<br />
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I was interested in looking a little deeper at the relative performance of the three major candidates in Massachusetts among different demographic groups to see which types of voters voted for each candidate.<br />
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I combined the unofficial city and town election results as reported by the <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/elections/2020/primary/democratic/massachusetts/" target="_blank">AP and the Boston Globe</a> and joined it together with American Community Survey Census data and results from previous presidential elections to look for relationships.<br />
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The city/town comparison is not ideal, in that we lose a lot of interesting variation in the large cities which are aggregated into a single number for each variable, but there was still enough variation to support interesting findings.<br />
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The three most significant factors turned out to be the extent of Democratic/Republican partisanship in each municipality as measured by P<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index" target="_blank">artisan Voter Index (PVI)</a>, the percentage of people with a college degree, and the percentage of people below the poverty line.<br />
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<b>Partisanship</b><br />
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Elizabeth Warren had a much higher percentage of votes in more liberal municipalities and Joe Biden had a higher percentage of votes in more conservative cities and towns. Bernie Sanders did marginally better in more liberal areas, but the partisanship score did not explain a significant difference in his performance.<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GafSRUBoXLA/XmJhys6g7gI/AAAAAAAAJmk/QqL6ZUjjnnMi_1-hsOw_DS-KhqaowcwSgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/ma_dem_votes_vs_pvi_plot.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="990" data-original-width="1600" height="395" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GafSRUBoXLA/XmJhys6g7gI/AAAAAAAAJmk/QqL6ZUjjnnMi_1-hsOw_DS-KhqaowcwSgCLcBGAsYHQ/s640/ma_dem_votes_vs_pvi_plot.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The partisanship score I used was the Partisan Voter Index (PVI) which is an average of the Democratic vs. Republican vote share in the last two presidential elections as compared to the United States as a whole.<br />
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<b>Education</b><br />
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Bernie Sanders performed significantly better in cities and towns with a lower percentage of college educated voters, while Elizabeth Warren performed much better in municipalities with a higher percentage of college voters. Education did not make a significant difference in Joe Biden's vote percentage.<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ioddKmmI_Jw/XmJh2s4I6mI/AAAAAAAAJmo/2GTM2k9AKIso-S1zruFqPFpa1j2MbXHQQCEwYBhgL/s1600/ma_dem_votes_vs_education_plot.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="992" data-original-width="1600" height="396" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ioddKmmI_Jw/XmJh2s4I6mI/AAAAAAAAJmo/2GTM2k9AKIso-S1zruFqPFpa1j2MbXHQQCEwYBhgL/s640/ma_dem_votes_vs_education_plot.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>Income</b><br />
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The income level in a city or town made a measurable difference to Sanders's and Biden's electoral performance, while not factoring a great deal in Warren's vote share. Bernie Sanders performed better in areas with a larger percentage of people below the poverty line, while Biden performed better in more affluent municipalities.<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cZsa3OLOVYk/XmJh2nkzs8I/AAAAAAAAJms/B3k5KSns1P4e2Pvc33hbjgdNpEcAKl7-wCEwYBhgL/s1600/ma_dem_votes_vs_income_plot.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="992" data-original-width="1600" height="396" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cZsa3OLOVYk/XmJh2nkzs8I/AAAAAAAAJms/B3k5KSns1P4e2Pvc33hbjgdNpEcAKl7-wCEwYBhgL/s640/ma_dem_votes_vs_income_plot.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-63870930487613418892018-11-01T15:55:00.000-04:002018-11-01T16:40:39.273-04:00Which Massachusetts cities and towns are getting more Republican or Democratic?<i>When comparing presidential margins, it comes down to Trumpiness</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
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We often think of the partisan lean of a district, town, or city as a fairly static characteristic. One of the common metrics to use for measuring partisan lean of a region is the Partisan Voter Index or PVI which looks at the Democratic/Republican margin averaged over the last two presidential cycles, compared to that of the country as a whole.<br />
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But partisan lean is not a static characteristic. Voters in a particular area sometimes vote for a Democratic candidate in one presidential election and a Republican in the next. Voters also move in and out of districts, cities, and towns changing the voting behaviors.<br />
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This article looks at the partisan shifts in Massachusetts cities and towns by comparing the Democratic margin in the 2008 Obama vs. McCain election to the margin in the 2016 Clinton vs. Trump election as a way of judging which cities and towns have gotten more Democratic, and which have gotten more Republican. I also look at what demographics might explain these shifts.<br />
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Here is a map of Massachusetts cities and towns with colors indicating the partisan voting shifts between 2008 and 2016 presidential elections.<br />
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<a href="https://fusiontables.google.com/embedviz?q=select+col34+from+1JX4TSP6eXnppTimtyQY5l3YFgIuVBAAOsY13EwKU&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=42.23139972932028&lng=-71.84860538039345&t=1&z=9&l=col34&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML" target="_blank">
<b>MA presidential vote shifts from 2008 to 2016</b> (click for interactive map)<br />
<img alt="Map of MA presidential vote margin shifts from 2008 to 2016" height="398" src="https://i.imgur.com/Vcf6qvL.jpg" width="640" />
</a>
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You can see some geographic clustering, but are there other demographic factors that help to explain the shifts?<br />
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A regression analysis points to two demographic variables that were responsible for 73% of the variation in the partisan voter shift—they were the percentage of residents that did not attend college, and the percent of non-hispanic white residents. (The demographic data was from the 2016 American Community Survey from the US Census Bureau.)<br />
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<img alt="Table of MA cities and towns with biggest Democratic shifts from 2008 to 2016" src="https://i.imgur.com/Xhwhq81.png" />
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The Massachusetts municipalities that shifted the most towards the Democratic side between 2008 and 2016 are primarily in the affluent Metrowest suburbs of Boston, but also include North Shore towns like Hamilton an Manchester-by-the-Sea and the South Shore towns of Cohasset and Hingham. The two towns with the biggest Democratic shifts were Sherborn and Dover.<br />
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<img alt="Table of MA cities and towns with biggest Republican shifts from 2008 to 2016" src="https://i.imgur.com/GuDQy45.png" />
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The cities and towns with the biggest Republican shifts are primarily in West Central and Western Massachusetts although there is also a cluster on the South Coast including Somerset, Fall River, Westport, Acushnet, and Fairhaven. The town with the largest shift from Obama towards trump is the small town of Monroe on the Vermont border.<br />
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<img alt="Table of MA cities and towns with lowest college education" src="https://i.imgur.com/HojjUg5.png" />
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The importance of the race variable in the regression is shown by this table sorted by college educational attainment. While most theses cities and towns shifted Republican, the 8 that shifted the Democratic direction show high percentages of minorities. A regression model with only the education component only predicts 60% of variation in the partisan shift, rather than the 73% of the two variable model.<br />
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The education component identified by the regression model is consistent with other studies that have been done on shifts from Obama to Trump, notably this Nate Silver Fivethirtyeight piece: <a href="http://nate%20silver%20on%20trump%20education%20race/" target="_blank">Education, not income, predicted who would vote for Trump</a>, although the Massachusetts model benefits more by using the race variable.<br />
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The research behind this post was used by <a href="https://www.wgbh.org/news/people/adam-reilly" target="_blank">Adam Reilly</a> for a WGBH <a href="https://www.wgbh.org/news/politics/2018/10/30/in-blue-massachusetts-some-striking-redward-shifts" target="_blank"><i>All Things Considered</i> piece</a>.<br />
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Here is the full list table of partisan shift for each of the 351 cities and towns of Massachusetts. You can click on the table to open a searchable Google Sheet with the data.<br />
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<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aXIgX5DsMACkh0InTfvBhlLd0bjDPNd4-fAon-QRNjQ/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">
<img alt="MA cities and towns partisan shift table" src="https://i.imgur.com/6wtiTC9.jpg" />
</a>Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-53745902439650112612018-08-31T09:36:00.002-04:002018-08-31T09:36:35.895-04:00An overview of Massachusetts 3rd Congressional district and primary candidates<i>Results of the September 4 primary will likely determine the race</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
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On August 9, 2017 Niki Tsongas shocked the Massachusetts political world by announcing she would not seek another term in the U.S. House for the Massachusetts 3rd District. Tsongas had represented the district after winning a special election to replace Marty Meehan in 2007.<br />
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The retirement announcement set of a flurry of exploratory activity and as many as 19 candidates have been in and out of the race. According to the Secretary of the Commonwealth, there are 10 Democratic candidates and one Republican candidate who will be on the primary ballot on September 4, 2018. Based on the partisan lean of the district and the current political climate, it is very likely that the winner of the Democratic primary will go on to succeed Tsongas in the House.<br />
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<b>The District</b><br />
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The Massachusetts 3rd Congressional District extends from Haverhill, Methuen, Lawrence, Andover, and Lawrence in the Merrimack Valley, across to Ashburnham, Gardner, and Winchendon in North-Central Mass., and down to Concord, Subury, and Marlborough in Boston's Metrowest region.<br />
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The 3rd District is the third-most conservative congressional district in Massachusetts with a PVI of D+9, meaning that it is 9 points more Democratic than the rest of the country, measured by an average of the last two presidential elections.<br />
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<a href="https://fusiontables.google.com/embedviz?q=select+col28+from+1XszEjZQhUWsTh3eAa3JI-7CtoXQOZIrAGWLO9Z29&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=42.52766828295442&lng=-71.5975675561412&t=1&z=10&l=col28&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML" target="_blank">
<b>MA 3rd City/Town PVI </b>(click for interactive map)<br />
<img alt="MA 3rd City/Town PVI" height="424" src="https://i.imgur.com/2aABbNu.jpg" width="640" />
</a>
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There is a wide variation in the partisan lean of the cities and towns in the 3rd District.<br />
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The city of Lawrence is the most Democratic in the district at D+33 putting it just above the 97th percentile for Massachusetts cities and towns. Townsend and Ashby are two of the most Republican towns in the Commonwealth at R+7, around 95th percentile in the other direction. The municipality with the district's median PVI is Westford at D+5.<br />
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The Republican-leaning towns are primarily distributed along the New Hampshire border and then creeping down into North Central Mass. in Lunenburg, Lancaster, and Winchendon.<br />
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<img alt="MA 3rd City/Town PVI Table" src="https://i.imgur.com/QLvQyHG.png" width="400" />
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There is also a wide variation in population and number of active voters in the cities and towns of the district. I am using the number of voters from each of the municipalities in the 2014 mid-term election as an estimate of the number of 2018 voters.<br />
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<a href="https://fusiontables.google.com/embedviz?q=select+col28+from+1XszEjZQhUWsTh3eAa3JI-7CtoXQOZIrAGWLO9Z29&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=42.54859387196358&lng=-71.58116635375791&t=1&z=10&l=col28&y=3&tmplt=3&hml=KML" target="_blank">
<b>MA 3rd City/Town 2014 votes </b>(click for interactive map)<br />
<img alt="MA 3rd City/Town Votes Map" height="415" src="https://i.imgur.com/JVRKwnN.jpg" width="640" />
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<img alt="MA 3rd City/Town Votes Table" src="https://i.imgur.com/Evbl0wG.png" width="525" />
<br />
<br />
Of the top 9 vote-producing municipalities, only Marlborough is not in the northeastern region of the district.<br />
<br />
In the following map, the 10 municipalities in the northeast area colored in orange accounted for 51% of the district votes in 2014, while the remaining 27 municipalities in yellow accounted for 49%.<br />
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<b>MA 3rd City/Town vote distribution</b><br />
<img alt="MA 3rd City/Town Northeast Votes Map" height="420" src="https://i.imgur.com/NG5c9Ps.jpg" width="640" /><br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="https://fusiontables.google.com/embedviz?q=select+col28+from+1XszEjZQhUWsTh3eAa3JI-7CtoXQOZIrAGWLO9Z29&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=42.51362721393542&lng=-71.62532432617189&t=1&z=10&l=col28&y=4&tmplt=4&hml=KML" target="_blank">
<b>MA 3rd City/Town median family income</b> (click for interactive map)<br />
<img alt="MA 3rd City/Town median family income map" height="419" src="https://i.imgur.com/UPpZgU5.jpg" width="640" />
</a>
<br />
<br />
In terms of demographics, the Massachusetts 3rd district is home to Sudbury, one the Commonwealth's richest towns with a median family income of $186,507. It is also home to Massachusetts's poorest city in Lawrence, with a median family income of $36,073. The town of Pepperell has the median median-family-income for the district at $94,625.<br />
<br />
The richest towns are clustered in the Metrowest area of the district, but extend up through Groton. Andover is the only upper-income municipality in Essex County. The smaller western towns and Fitchburg are on the lower end of the median family income spectrum.<br />
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<br />
<img alt="MA 3rd City/Town median family income table" src="https://i.imgur.com/sfPA1Tj.png" width="525" /><br />
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>The Candidates</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
There are 10 Democrats and one Republican on the September 4 primary ballot.<br />
<br />
<img alt="Table of candidates for the Massachusetts 3rd District" src="https://i.imgur.com/jTRbLIz.png" width="645" /><br />
<br />
That table is sorted by the amount of contributions to the campaign, a simple but not always accurate judge of candidate viability. I have separated out candidate campaign loans which can inflate total receipt numbers for candidates like Beej Das who have loaned their campaigns much more than they have raised.<br />
<br />
It is unlikely that a candidate that raises zero dollars in a very competitive primary like this one is putting in the necessary effort to earn more than a token amount of votes, especially given the resources of those who are raising over a million dollars to reach out through a paid field staff and advertising.<br />
<br />
There have been <a href="https://www.uml.edu/News/press-releases/2018/Aug2018-3rd-district-poll-release.aspx" target="_blank">two public polls</a> of the race. The first showed Rufus Gifford in the lead, but with whopping 59% not having a preference. In the second poll, the no preference was down to 29%—still quite high. It showed Dan Koh on top with 19%, followed by Gifford and Barbara L'Italien, both with 13%.<br />
<br />
<img alt="MA 3rd Poll Results Table" height="400" src="https://i.imgur.com/eizzoJW.png" width="306" />
<br />
<br />
The front-running candidates have been hammering the airwaves with TV ads, inundating mail boxes with mailers, and knocking doors. It is pretty easy to identify the top five finishers, but very difficult to predict their finishing order.Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-88310476044839319742017-12-06T08:26:00.002-05:002017-12-06T08:38:40.338-05:00Over-performance in Fitchburg pushed Tran over the top in Worcester and Middlesex special election<i>Zephir slightly over-performed compared to a modeled result in most other towns</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
<br />
Republican Fitchburg City Councilor Dean Tran defeated three other opponents, including Democratic Leominster City Councilor Sue Chalifoux Zephir, to replace State Senator Jen Flanagan in the Worcester and Middlesex senate district by a margin of 607 votes (unofficial results).<br />
<br />
Tran's victory was mainly due to a staggering 19 point victory in his home city of Fitchburg, which has a strong lean towards Democrats in most elections. Fitchburg has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+9. Our <a href="http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2016/10/what-do-you-get-when-you-run-20000.html" target="_blank">state legislative regression model</a> predicted a Democratic vote share of 56% for an open seat in a non-presidential year.<br />
<br />
<img alt="Worcester and Middlesex special election results vs. PVI chart" height="252" src="https://i.imgur.com/LYzSXvo.png" width="640" />
<br />
<br />
Sue Chalifoux Zephir out-performed the model in most of the other municipalities, including an 11 point over-performance in the much-smaller town of Sterling, and kept it reasonably close in the others.<br />
<br />
Zephir would have stood a better chance if she could have built a home field advantage in Leominster, similar to Tran's in Fitchburg, but fellow City Councilor Claire Freda came within range of Tran and Zephir with over a thousand votes, by far Freda's strongest showing in any municipality. It seems that Freda's success in Leominster prevented Zephir from running up the numbers in the largest vote-producing city in the district.<br />
<br />
Senator-elect Tran will serve out the rest of the current term and will be up for re-election next November, 2018. He will have the advantage of incumbency, but will face a much larger Democratically motivated electorate in a highly-charged mid-term election.Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-61263604185366799972017-12-05T08:45:00.001-05:002017-12-05T08:45:29.734-05:00A look at the Worcester and Middlesex State Senate special election<i>Another classic swing district special election</i><br />
by BRENT BENSON<br />
<br />
There is a special election today to fill the vacant Worcester and Middlesex state senate seat, left vacant by former Senator Jen Flanagan who left to take a seat on the newly-created MA Cannabis Control Commission. There are four candidates vying for the seat: Leominster City Councilor and Democratic nominee Sue Chalifoux Zephir; Fitchburg City Councilor and Republican nominee Dean Tran; Green-Rainbow nominee Charlene DiCalogero; and Leominster City Councilor Claire Freda, who is running as an independent.<br />
<br />
<b>The District</b><br />
<br />
The Worcester and Middlesex is a classic swing district with a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+2. While it has been held by a Democrat since 1991, a slightly different configuration of the district was held for many years by Republicans Mary Padula of Lunenburg and Robert A. Hall of Fitchburg.<br />
<br />
(Click <a href="https://fusiontables.google.com/embedviz?q=select+col13+from+1XMhXwkKl9Bm6Zm8mtKFSNEUOJ52r9Zxtb2xnetmC&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=42.53336268544664&lng=-72.0069148798828&t=1&z=11&l=col13&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML" target="_blank">here</a> for an interactive version of the map.)
<img alt="Worcester and Middlesex Senate District Precinct PVI map" height="537" src="https://i.imgur.com/tpewxfv.jpg" width="640" />
<br />
<br />
The precincts range from the D+22 Fitchburg 5-B to the R+10 Townsend 1st, which is in the top 20 most Republican precincts in the state.<br />
<br />
<img alt="Worcester and Middlesex District Precinct PVI chart" height="960" src="https://i.imgur.com/f0Tf3JF.png" width="501" />
<br />
<br />
The cities of Clinton, Gardner, and Fitchburg are fairly blue along with the towns of Berlin and Bolton, while the remaining towns of Lancaster, Lunenburg, Sterling, Townsend, and Westminster, with Townsend leading the way with an overall PVI of R+7.<br />
<br />
<b>Fundraising
</b><br />
<br />
Democrat Sue Chalifoux Zephir raised and spent over twice as much money as GOP candidate Dean Tran across the pre-primary and pre-election periods, while independent candidate Claire Freda and Green-Rainbow candidate Charlene DiCalogero were off the pace by an order of magnitude.<br />
<br />
<img alt="Worcester and Middlesex fundraising chart" height="160" src="https://i.imgur.com/OJ6sK51.png" width="640" />
<br />
<br />
Fundraising and spending are not determining factors, but they are a strong indication of candidate strength.<br />
<br />
<b>Special Election</b><br />
<br />
The race is essentially a toss-up in our <a href="http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2016/10/what-do-you-get-when-you-run-20000.html" target="_blank">model</a>, with the slightest advantage given to the GOP in a non-presidential election year without an incumbent, although a Democratic win by 10 points could easily happen within the model's 90% confidence interval.<br />
<br />
While 3rd party and independent candidates, on average, play a very small role in most races with Democrats and Republicans winning the lion's share of the votes, they can play an important role when the margins are very small. While I believe that Sue Chalifoux Zephir will dominate among progressives and Democrats, Claire Freda—a well-known Leominster City Councilor—was endorsed by the Fitchburg Sentinel, and has a chance to take some votes from the major party candidates.<br />
<br />
The state party establishments have been all-in on this race with every major Massachusetts Democrat putting in work for Zephir, while Charlie Baker has worked hard for Tran, and the state GOP has delivered some last minute attack ads on Zephir in the closing day of the race.<br />
<br />
There is no easy pick for the winner of the Worcester and Middlesex special election, with the race coming down to a slight GOP lean in the model vs. strong fundraising by Zephir and a seemingly pro-Democratic atmosphere indicated in several special elections so far this year.Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-18595204329321899682017-11-06T09:20:00.004-05:002017-11-06T09:20:58.819-05:00Polls and preliminary data point toward a Walsh victory in Boston mayoral race<i>A remarkably consistent margin has separated Walsh and Jackson in polls and preliminary voting</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
<br />
All of the public data measuring voter preference in the 2017 Boston mayoral race show a gap in the low thirty point range, pointing toward a large victory by incumbent Marty Walsh over challenger City Councilor Tito Jackson on Tuesday, November 7.<br />
<br />
There have been three publicly released polls of the race conducted by <a href="http://www.wbur.org/news/2017/10/04/wbur-boston-poll-walsh-jackson" target="_blank">MassINC</a>, <a href="http://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp_boston_10.22.17.xls" target="_blank">Emerson</a>, and <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2017/10/22/walsh-dominates-jackson-new-globe-poll/48qkTOW8upYHcFOZABPx9L/story.html" target="_blank">Suffolk</a>, all showing Walsh/Jackson margins in the 31 to 36 point range. The September 26 <a href="https://www.boston.gov/departments/elections/unofficial-election-results" target="_blank">preliminary election</a> showed a Walsh/Jackson margin of 33 points.<br />
<br />
<img alt="2017 BOSTON MAYORAL POLLING AVERAGE AND RESULTS FROM PRELIMINARY ELECTION " height="198" src="https://i.imgur.com/wTzIfNL.png" width="640" />
<br />
<br />
<b>Preliminary result geography</b><br />
<br />
The precinct-by-precinct results from the preliminary show Walsh winning 210 of 254 (83%) of the precincts.<br />
<br />
(Click <a href="https://fusiontables.google.com/embedviz?q=select+col21+from+15uNiS9zskaKiIMzGde-igYLMVdBxI_cWhgtaMnZo&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=42.30471448141817&lng=-71.24989989272211&t=1&z=12&l=col21&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML" target="_blank">here</a> for an interactive version of the map.)<br />
<img alt="Map of Boston preliminary results by precinct" height="640" src="https://i.imgur.com/LVLd8X9.jpg" width="605" />
<br />
<br />
A look at the preliminary results by neighborhood/planning district show Jackson winning Roxbury by 9 points, while Walsh won all other districts with the largest margin coming in at a whopping 71 points in South Boston.<br />
<br />
(Click <a href="https://fusiontables.google.com/embedviz?q=select+col11+from+17y_Yh1_nIZndtIG49JHMg9U4oErs7eZszZnbmhHm&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=42.3122149491114&lng=-71.10645318445302&t=1&z=12&l=col11&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML" target="_blank">here</a> for an interactive version of the map.)<br />
<img alt="Map of Boston preliminary results by neighborhood" height="640" src="https://i.imgur.com/DkbENxN.jpg" width="578" />
<br />
<br />
Walsh had a small victory over Jackson in Jackson's own City Council District 7, winning 51% of the two-way Walsh/Jackson voters.<br />
<br />
Given the consistency of the overall margin in the preliminary results and the polls, it would be a remarkable upset and an indication in some serious polling failures if Marty Walsh is not easily re-elected on November 7.Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-86024903721504670722017-10-15T21:09:00.001-04:002017-10-15T21:09:27.910-04:00All signs point to a close outcome in Tuesday's Bristol and Norfolk state senate special election<i>Bristol and Norfolk is a prototypical swing district</i><br />
<div>
by BRENT BENSON</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Heavy hitters from the Massachusetts Democratic and Republican parties have gotten involved in the closing days of the special election campaign to take the open Bristol and Norfolk State Senate seat, previously held by Senator James Tmility (D-Walpole). The candidates will need all the help they can get in a district that could easily go to a Democrat or a Republican.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The resignation of Timilty to take the position of Norfolk County Treasurer has led to a scramble by Democratic, Republican, and Independent candidates vying for the open seat in an October 17. The candidates on the ballot will be Paul Feeney, a progressive Democrat from Foxborough, Jacob Ventura, a conservative Republican from Attleboro, and former TV news reporter Joe Shortsleeve of Medfield who is running as an Independent.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Republican Governor Charlie Baker gave his support to Ventura in an <a href="http://www.thesunchronicle.com/news/local_news/governor-throws-weight-behind-ventura-with-attleboro-visit/article_ac1fe737-2db2-52ee-959c-6265b7403f97.html" target="_blank">October 7 visit to Attleboro</a>, while Senator Elizabeth Warren <a href="https://www.facebook.com/events/860279717470396" target="_blank">endorsed and canvassed with Feeney</a> on Sunday, October 15. Feeney had a <a href="http://www.thesunchronicle.com/news/local_news/kennedy-throws-weight-behind-feeney-in-senate-race/article_58b91c0c-048d-585b-982c-92bfd0c5c9bc.html" target="_blank">similar event with Congressman Joe Kennedy</a> on September 23rd.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Swing District</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The Bristol and Norfolk District, held by Democrat Timilty since 2005, is the definition of a Massachusetts swing district with a PVI rating (an average of the last two presidential races compared to the U.S. average) of D+2. This makes it the fifth-most Republican state senate district in Massachusetts.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
There are two Democrats elected in more Republican state senate districts: Marc Pacheco in the 1st Plymouth and Bristol (EVEN), and Anne Gobi in the most-Republican Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire, and Middlesex District (R+4). There are three Republican State Senators in more Democratic districts: Patrick O'Connor (Plymouth and Norfolk—D+2), Bruce Tarr (1st Essex and Middlesex—D+3), and Donald Humason (2nd Hampden and Hampshire—D+7).<br />
<br />
Our <a href="http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2016/10/what-do-you-get-when-you-run-20000.html" target="_blank">Mass. Numbers regression model</a>, which looks at district PVI and incumbency status, gives an edge to a Democrat in a D+2 race without an incumbent.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>The Municipalities</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
There are seven full towns in the Bristol and Norfolk District—Foxborough, Mansfield, Medfield, Norton, Rehoboth, and Walpole—and parts of the town of Sharon, and the city of Attleboro.<br />
<br /></div>
<img alt="Table of Bristol and Norfolk municipalities including PVI and percent of the vote" height="252" src="https://i.imgur.com/Qvfj9pw.png" width="400" /><br />
<div>
<br />
The partisanship of the municipalities range from R+6 in Rehoboth to D+19 in the district's Sharon precincts. Walpole provides the most votes in the last two presidential elections, followed by Mansfield, the Attleboro precincts, and Foxborough.<br />
<br />
<b>Bristol and Norfolk Precinct Map</b><br />
<b><br /></b></div>
<a href="https://fusiontables.googleusercontent.com/embedviz?q=select+col11+from+1rRB6uJLalsHCY7R1ZM9kfHmIkj1MaS3zMZUufFLg&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=41.98888596869177&lng=-71.50137875317385&t=1&z=11&l=col11&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML">(Click to view interactive map.)<br /><img alt="Bristol and Norfolks precinct map" height="640" src="https://i.imgur.com/8FiwlgH.jpg" width="387" /></a><br />
<br />
Only Medfield and the Sharon precincts are completely Democratic with respect to PVI, and Rehoboth is the only municipality with completely Republican precincts. The remaining municipalities have both Democratic and Republican precincts.<br />
<br />
<b>Fundraising and Expenditures</b><br />
<br />
Campaign fundraising strength is another gauge of candidate strength. Democrat Paul Feeney has outraised and outspent his opponents, raising $76,706 and spending $62,365 as reported on the pre-primary and pre-election reports.<br />
<br />
Republican Jacob Ventura raised $39,480 during the same period and spent $40,275, while Independent candidate Joe Shortsleeve raised $5,765 and spent only $3,383.<br />
<br />
A wild-card on the spending side is a Republican special interest committee called Jobs First, which has spent <a href="http://www.thesunchronicle.com/news/local_news/outside-group-continues-attacks-on-feeney/article_27c5503f-c448-57a0-8c69-72988f7cff8f.html" target="_blank">$22,772 dollars</a>, mostly on attack ads against Feeney, but also on an a positive ad for Ventura.<br />
<br />
<b>Turnout/Third-Party Effects</b><br />
<br />
Special elections normally have very low turnout with only the most motivated voters getting to the polls. The demographic of those hard-core voters normally trends towards older and more conservative, giving a bit of an advantage to Republicans. However, this can be exacerbated or overcome by a strong voter contact and get-out-the-vote efforts by candidates.<br />
<br />
It is unclear how Joe Shortsleeve, running as an Independent, will impact Tuesday's vote. Shortsleeve is a bit of enigma, having voted for Trump for President, but saying he will caucus with Democrats in the Senate if elected. Shortsleeve was attacked, along with Feeney, in <a href="http://www.thesunchronicle.com/news/local_news/shortsleeve-hits-back-at-republican-charges/article_62d04430-a6ac-5c5b-9c03-65c8638442a7.html" target="_blank">a Republican mailer</a>, seemingly trying to shore up conservative support for Ventura. However, it is unlikely that Shortsleeve will get too many progressive votes if they know that Shortsleeve supported Trump in 2016.<br />
<br />
The new Senator from the Bristol and Norfolk District will likely be the candidate who runs the best voter contact and get-out-the-vote operation on October 17. We could very well end up with another 20 or 100 vote nail-biter.Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-86849078340072651082016-10-17T20:19:00.000-04:002016-11-08T18:09:27.187-05:00What do you get when you run 20,000 simulations of the 55 contested MA state legislature races?<i>A few competitive nail biters and a likelihood of similar partisan make-up to today</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
<br />
While the vast majority of recent political coverage has been devoted the U.S. presidential race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, there remain critically important state legislative races, which can have major consequences issues like healthcare, education, and the environment.<br />
<br />
In Massachusetts, there are 55 contested state house and senate general election races. I created a regression model based on historical election outcomes from 466 contested legislative races from 2004 to the present, and created a probability-based forecast for each race, along with predictions as to the partisan make up of the legislature after the election.<br />
<br />
First, a look at the results, followed by a deep dive into the model.<br />
<br />
<b>Simulated Results</b><br />
<br />
While we have already seen big surprises in this 2016 state legislative cycle—including remarkable primary defeats of longtime incumbent State Representatives <a href="http://www.cambridgeday.com/2016/09/08/connolly-defeats-toomey-in-dem-primary-during-23rd-year-as-a-state-representative/" target="_blank">Tim Toomey</a> and <a href="http://www.eagletribune.com/news/matias-ousts-devers-from-th-essex-seat/article_1ea7e5a4-b6fb-5d97-bd26-c53917584000.html" target="_blank">Marcos Devers</a>—the range of simulated results point to the likelihood of a Massachusetts House and Senate that is very similar to the status quo.<br />
<br />
There are currently 126 Democrats and 34 Republicans in the Massachusetts House of Representatives. The model indicates a relatively small chance (29%) that Republicans will pick up one or more seats, an approximately even chance (48%) that Democrats will pick up one or more seats, and a 24% chance of exactly the same partisan proportions as today.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="MA House Number of Democrats" height="393" src="https://i.imgur.com/0BUsu7y.png" width="400" />
<br />
<br />
The smaller 40 member Senate chamber provides for less variability in the range of seats held by Democrats and Republicans. There is an 85% chance that Democrats will keep the same number of seats or add, while only a 15% chance of Senate Republicans increasing in number. There was a status quo outcome of 34 Democratic Senators in about half of the simulations.<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
<img alt="MA Senate Number of Democrats" height="270" src="https://i.imgur.com/wxmBcpZ.png" width="400" />
</div>
<br />
The next table gives a summary across the simulations of each contested race. The table is sorted by the predicted Democratic margin from the model, and there is a probability of a Democratic win, GOP win, or third-party/unenrolled win.<br />
<br />
The races in the middle of the table with predicted margins close to zero could easily go either way, depending on district-specific factors—most importantly candidate quality, but also campaign organization and fundraising—and macro factors like the state of the presidential race.<br />
<br />
The predictions are strictly based on fundamentals, and do not take into account important differentiators like candidate quality, fundraising, and voter outreach. There is more uncertainty in the open races without an incumbent—the majority of the races that fall outside the 95% confidence bands of the model have been in open races.<br />
<br />
<div>
<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Cl5pBOgaqGFoCkwdpKTs7Svzy00la3olQss0ze0UEs4/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">
<img alt="Contested MA legislative races" src="https://i.imgur.com/Kkfr6Kw.png" />
</a>
</div>
<br />
<br />
<b>The Model</b><br />
<br />
The model is based on an analysis of the 466 contested state legislative elections from 2004 through the present. I developed a regression model that predicts the democratic share of the vote in a state legislative contest, dependent on the Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of the district, the incumbency status, and whether the election occurs as part of a presidential general election.<br />
<br />
The Partisan Voter Index was developed by the Cook Political Report to give a baseline reading of a district's partisanship compared to the country as a whole. It is calculated by comparing the districts two-party vote margin for the last two presidential elections with the margin for whole country. A PVI of D+3 means that the district is 3 points more Democratic than the country in the last two presidential elections.<br />
<br />
The incumbency status for a race is critically important. The regression model gives a Republican or Democratic incumbent over a 10-point advantage, compared to running in an open seat.<br />
<br />
Democratic state legislative candidates perform, on average, 5-points better in a presidential election year, than in an off election year. There are a large group of Democratic voters that only come out for presidential contests.<br />
<br />
The three variables in the regression model explains 74% of the variation in the democratic share of the vote, with the remaining 26% due to other factors like candidate quality and campaign strength.<br />
<br />
A Democratic state legislative incumbent has not lost in a presidential election in the years I looked at: 2004, 2008, and 2012. However, there have been some close calls, including Denise Andrews's narrow win over Susannah Whipps Lee in 2012 by less than 200 votes. Lee came back to defeat Andrews in 2014, and began a challenge again this year, before withdrawing from the race.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="State Legislative model 2004-2014" src="https://i.imgur.com/n8PoaMh.png" />
</div>
<br />
The chart shows a graphical representation of the regression model decomposed into its Presidential vs. Off-Year components horizontally, and the three incumbency statuses of Democratic, Open, and Republican show vertically.<br />
<br />
<b>Presidential Coattails</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
There has been a history of the presidential margin in Massachusetts being correlated with margins of state legislature candidates. I wrote <a href="http://commonwealthmagazine.org/politics/why-trumps-performance-matters-in-mass/" target="_blank">a piece in the Fall 2016 issue of Commonwealth Magazine</a> describing the possible effects of a larger or smaller Massachusetts win by Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump on November 8.Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-54579722024908809412016-04-10T16:28:00.005-04:002016-04-11T08:46:49.134-04:00A look at geography and fundraising in the 1st Suffolk and Middlesex special primary<i>Diverse district spans Cambridge, Beacon Hill, North End, East Boston, Revere, and Winthrop</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
<br />
On Tuesday, April 12 there will be a special state primary election to replace State Senator Anthony Petruccelli who has resigned to pursue a job in the private sector.<br />
<br />
Open State Senate seats are hard to come by, and there is a very strong field of Democratic candidates vying to represent the 1st Suffolk and Middlesex District, which extends from around Western Avenue in Cambridge, through Beacon Hill, the Theater District, Downtown Boston, and the North End, and into East Boston, including all of Revere and Winthrop.<br />
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<a href="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/embedviz?q=select+col15+from+12fUG7DAFn6PfjpEBQfl6sQ0t7CO3Xc07egI-lAr5&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=42.391863959108086&lng=-71.03650325873559&t=1&z=12&l=col15&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML">
<img alt="Map of 1st Suffolk and Middlesex Senate District" src="http://i.imgur.com/dWWy8K5.jpg" height="456" width="640" />
</a>
</div>
<br />
The 1st Suffolk and Middlesex district is overwhelmingly Democratic with a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index" target="_blank">PVI rating</a> of D+18. The most Democratic precinct in the district is Cambridge Ward 5, Precinct 1 with a whopping D+40 rating, while Ward 6, Precinct 1 in Revere is the closest to a Republican precinct at D+1. You can click on the map above to take you to explore the precincts in more depth.<br />
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The candidates reflect the geographic diversity of the district. State Representative Jay Livingstone represents the 8th Suffolk district which has nine overlapping precincts in Cambridge and Beacon Hill. There are three East Boston candidates: Lydia Edwards, Diana Hwang, and Paul Rogers. The Revere candidates are former Mayer Dan Rizzo, and City Councillor Steven Morabito. Joseph Boncore is a Winthrop Housing Authority Member.<br />
<br />
<b>Home Turf</b><br />
<br />
When looking to evaluate the chance of the candidates success, it is worth looking at the percentage of the voting population from each of the candidate regions. I will consider the nine overlapping precincts of Rep. Livingstone's 8th Suffolk District to be his home territory. I calculated the home turf using vote totals from the last several elections. The percentages were very consistent across various election types.<br />
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<div>
<img alt="1st Suffolk and Middlesex Candidates" src="http://i.imgur.com/jeAOrGB.png" height="187" width="640" />
</div>
<br />
Revere is the biggest part of the district by number of votes (28%), while the 8th Suffolk, East Boston, and Winthrop portions are very similar in the 15-17% range. Dan Rizzo also has the advantage of having been on the 1st Suffolk and Middlesex special primary ballot against Senator Petruccelli in 2007—a race won by Petruccelli.<br />
<br />
<b>Fundraising</b><br />
<br />
Another metric by which we can judge the candidates is fundraising. While the candidate that raises and spend the most doesn't necessarily win, candidates that cannot or do not raise competitively, are much less likely to win.<br />
<br />
The candidate who raised the most during the OCPF pre-primary filing period (January 1 through March 25) was Diana Hwang, who raised a whopping $121,708. The only other recent special senate primary candidates to exceed this total were Linda Dorcena Forry and Nick Collins in the hotly contested 2013 1st Suffolk election to replace Senator Jack Hart—both raised over $130,000.<br />
<br />
While Rep. Jay Livingstone raised significantly less during the pre-primary period ($77,783), he started out with over $90,000 in the bank and spent the most money, by far, of any candidate with expenditures of $133,174. With the deciding primary coming up on Tuesday, money sitting in the bank does a candidate no good, and Livingstone spent significantly on mailings and top-flight consulting to push through the compressed and lightning-fast special election calendar.<br />
<br />
Lydia Edwards and Joseph Boncore were in the next tier of campaign raising and spending with fundraising totals of $77,783 and $73,675 and expenditures of $45,013 and $70,662. Former Revere Mayor Dan Rizzo raised and spent significantly with totals of $51,100 and $28,779, while Paul Rogers and Steven Morabito did not raise anywhere close to competitive amounts.<br />
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<div>
<img alt="Pre-Primary Fundraising Totals" src="http://i.imgur.com/qOTzRTM.png" height="640" width="595" />
</div>
<br />
Over the last six years of contested State Senate special primaries fundraising totals have averaged around $50,000, with average spending of around $43,000. The winning candidates have had raised $61,000 on average, and spent an average of $58,000. The top raiser and spender has not won in every case, but very low levels of fundraising and spending do correlate significantly with special primary loss.<br />
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<img alt="Historic Pre-Primary Fundraising Totals" src="http://i.imgur.com/VJv0INz.png" height="507" width="640" />
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<br />
<b>Upshot</b><br />
<br />
There does not seem to be a clear front-runner in the 1st Suffolk and Middlsex special primary.<br />
<br />
Dan Rizzo and Steve Morabito have the advantage of having been on the ballot and familiar to about a quarter of the likely voters, but Morabito has not been a competitive fundraiser. Rizzo was also on the ballot against State Senator Petruccelli in the 2007 special state primary with almost the same set of voters, where Rizzo won 40% of the vote, compared to Petruccelli's 60%.<br />
<br />
Diana Hwang has shown strong fundraising abilities for a first-time candidate, but did not seem to take full advantage of her raised cash, leaving over $87,000 in the bank as of March 25, and she has never been on the ballot for any of these voters.<br />
<br />
Lydia Edwards has been at least competitive on the fundraising front and has received some significant endorsements from noted elected officials and from the Boston Globe. Edwards is also brand new to voters.<br />
<br />
Representative Jay Livingstone has been on the ballot for about 17% of the likely voters and has been very successful in raising and spending campaign funds. He has a strong set of campaign advisors who focus on voter ID and turnout, key for a low-turnout special primary election.Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-67653798151967129932016-02-27T16:47:00.003-05:002016-02-28T08:08:16.312-05:00Clinton likely to win big on Super Tuesday<i>Clinton's worst-case scenario is winning six out of nine primaries</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
<br />
There are nine Democratic presidential primaries on Tuesday, March 1—better known as Super Tuesday—and Secretary Hillary Clinton is predicted to win seven of them, based on the <a href="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight polls-plus prediction model</a>. A win in Alabama—where there is not enough polling for a projection, but where Clinton will almost certainly win—puts the count at nine. Even if Clinton loses all three states where the outcome is in doubt, she will win about four times as many delegates as Senator Bernie Sanders.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="Super Tuesday Democratic Primary Projections" src="http://i.imgur.com/WpnS4kJ.png" />
</div>
<br />
Clinton's lead in the polls in five of the eight contests—Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia—are enough to predict wins of 30 points or more with win probabilities of over 98%. While there is only one poll of the Alabama primary, the Clinton +28 margin in the <a href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-alabama-democratic-presidential-primary" target="_blank">February PPP poll</a>, combined with geographic and demographic similarities with other southern states, means an almost sure win for Clinton in the Alabama.<br />
<br />
The Massachusetts and Oklahoma races are much closer with predicted margins of 7 and 9 points and win probabilities of 81% and 77%. Vermont, Senator Bernie Sanders home state, is the lone Super Tuesday primary predicted to go for Sanders, with a predicted margin of a whopping 75 points, and a greater than 99% winning probability.<br />
<br />
While primaries are notoriously hard to poll and predict, there is enough evidence to suggest that the worst case scenario for Clinton would be losses in the closer contests in Massachusetts and Oklahoma, and the expected trouncing in Vermont. Even in this situation, Sanders' states provide a maximum of 145 delegates, while Clinton's states would total 561 delegates (although the complex delegate division rules make it difficult to predict an exact count for each candidate).<br />
<br />
In the most-favorable Clinton scenario, Sanders would win Vermont's 16 delegates, while Secretary Clinton's winning states would have 690 delegates. Based on <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-doesnt-need-momentum-he-needs-to-win-these-states/" target="_blank">race results and polling in Super Tuesday and subsequence states</a>, it is unlikely that Senator Sanders can win the nomination without a significant change in race dynamics.<br />
<br />Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-13913759547326066822016-02-01T17:27:00.000-05:002016-02-01T17:27:07.654-05:00A look at the 3rd Worcester, 9th Plymouth, and 12th Essex special state primaries<i>Candidates vie to replace DiNatali, Brady, and Cole on February 2nd</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
<br />
While those who follow politics are busy with this month's Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, there are three contested State Primaries for Massachusetts State Representative seats on Tuesday, February 2nd, the day after the Iowa Caucuses.<br />
<br />
Rep. Steve DiNatali resigned his 3rd Worcester seat to run for the mayorship of Fitchburg. DiNatali won the municipal election and took office on January 4th. The 3rd Worcester State Representative District consists of all the precincts in Fitchburg, and Precinct B of Lunenburg.<br />
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Rep. Leah Cole resigned as 12th Essex State Representative to return to her nursing career. All of the 12th Essex State Representative District precincts are in Peabody.<br />
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Rep. Mike Brady gave up his 9th Plymouth seat to run for the 2nd Plymouth and Bristol State Senate seat that was left vacant by the death of Thomas Kennedy. Brady won the special election and was sworn in as a State Senator on November 10th. All of the precincts of the 9th Plymouth State Representative District are in the city of Brockton.<br />
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While all three state representative districts have a Democratic-leaning Partisan Voter Index (a measure of Democratic vs. Republican voting in the last two presidential elections as compared to the U.S. average), both the 3rd Worcester and 12th Essex districts can go Republican, as indicated in the Charlie Baker margins of +12 and +10 in 2014 gubernatorial election.<br />
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<div>
<img alt="February 2nd Special Primaries" src="http://i.imgur.com/oUgXrpf.png" />
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<br />
<b>3rd Worcester Candidates</b></div>
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There are three candidates for the Democratic primary in the 3rd Worcester District. Joseph Byrne is a retired insurance company owner who has not raised or spent any money in the pre-primary period, and who has not received any major endorsements.<br />
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Stephen Hay, an at-large Fitchburg City Councillor, and Kim Maxwell, a Community HealthLink social worker, both seem to have viable candidacies. Hay has raised and spent quite a bit more money, and has received the endorsement of three local State Reps—Hank Naughton, Dennis Rosa, and Jon Zlotnik—and the Fitchburg Sentinel newspaper. Kim Maxwell, on the other hand, has secured the endorsement of Massachusetts NOW, Massachusetts Women's Political Caucus, Mass Alliance, SEIU, and NASW. The endorsements point to Hay as a more conservative Democrat, while Maxwell has received the endorsement of more progressive organizations.<br />
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There are no official Republican candidates for the 3rd Worcester seat. Dean Tran, a QA Manager at Avid Technologies, intended to run as a Republican, but did not switch his party affiliation from Independent to Republican in time to appear on the ballot. He is therefore mounting a sticker/write-in campaign and needs to get 150 write-in votes in the Republican primary to appear on the special election ballot against the Democratic winner, a fairly easy bar to clear.<br />
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<div>
<img alt="3rd Worcester Primary Candidates" src="http://i.imgur.com/aBLOELM.png" />
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<br />
<b>9th Plymouth Candidates</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
There are two current city councillors and one former city councillor in the Democratic primary for the 9th Plymouth State Representative seat. Former councillor Gerry Cassidy has raised over five times as much as his rivals, but current city councillor and aide to Congressman Stephen Lynch, Shayna Barnes has received seven high profile endorsements including Lynch, State Senator Linda Dorcena Forry, Boston City Councilor Ayanna Presley, among others.<br />
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The winner of this primary will surely be the next State Representative, given strong Democratic constituency of Brockton (and the lack of any announced opposition).</div>
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<div>
<img alt="9th Plymouth Primary Candidates" src="http://i.imgur.com/lKa77XM.png" />
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<br />
<b>12th Essex Candidates</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
The 12th Essex State Representative seat has been in GOP hands during the last two elections with wins by Rep. Leah Cole by 3 points and by 1 point over Beverley Griffin Dunne.<br />
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Former State Rep. Thomas Walsh formerly held this seat before resigning after an ethics probe. He is the top fundraiser on the Democratic side over Councilor at Large James Moutsoulas and Best Buddies State Director Craig Welton.<br />
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Jaclyn Corriveau, a collector for American Renal Associates, raised over $41,000 dollars in the pre-primary period and will face off against Cole Aide Stephanie Peach.<br />
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Christopher Gallagher, former chair of the Peabody Cable Commission, is running as an independent, setting up a three-way special election on March 1st.</div>
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<div>
<img alt="12th Essex Primary Candidates" src="http://i.imgur.com/myfF1Wg.png" />
</div>
<br />Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-77218972086579623942015-11-01T10:02:00.001-05:002015-11-01T11:45:40.579-05:00State Senate race between Brady and Diehl is a tale of two districts<i>Precinct-by-precinct analysis shows 2nd Plymouth and Bristol district split between Democratic Brockton and right-leaning suburbs</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
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Massachusetts State Representatives Mike Brady (D-Brockton) and Geoff Diehl (R-Whitman) are facing off in a November 3rd election to replace State Senator Thomas Kennedy as Senator for the 2nd Plymouth and Bristol District.<br />
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The 2nd Plymouth and Bristol District has a clear divide between its Democratic-leaning urban center of Brockton, and its more conservative suburbs of Easton (in Bristol County), and East Bridgewater, Halifax, Hanover, Hanson, Plympton, and Whitman (all in Plymouth County).<br />
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<b>2nd Plymouth and Bristol Precincts</b><br />
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<iframe frameborder="no" height="350" scrolling="no" src="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/embedviz?q=select+col2%3E%3E1+from+1JxPgasJNST0QetCcXhobS2Wf5kwwSWyjXBlWxjZI&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=42.040055199378635&lng=-70.90072562109378&t=1&z=10&l=col2%3E%3E1&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML" width="600"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
An analysis of the PVI (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index">Partisan Voter Index</a>, an average of the partisan lean based on the last two Presidential elections) of the district and its precincts bears out this divide. The overall PVI of the district is D+6, which would point towards a narrow victory for a Democrat for an open state legislative seat in Massachusetts.<br />
<br />
However, Republican Donald Humason won the 2013 special election to replace State Senator Michael Knapik in the 2nd Hampden and Hampshire District in 2013, which has a PVI of D+8, showing that the seat is winnable by Geoff Diehl and the GOP.<br />
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<div>
<img alt="2nd Plymouth and Bristol precinct chart" src="http://i.imgur.com/eDhffJj.png" />
<br />
<br />
Representative Brady currently represents 12 of the precincts of the senate district, while Representative Diehl represents only 6, which should provide a name recognition boost for Brady.</div>
<br />
<b>Money</b><br />
<br />
Geoff Diehl has a definite advantage where money is concerned, receiving backing from outside groups like the Republican State Leadership Committee, a national PAC trying to elect Republicans to state legislatures, and local super donor Christopher Egan (son of EMC founder Dick Egan).<br />
<br />
<b>Turnout and ground game</b><br />
<br />
While off-year and special elections normally favor the GOP because of demographic turnout trends, the November 3rd election date corresponds to a contested mayoral race in Brockton, which may even out the turnout between Brockton and the suburbs.<br />
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In addition, Mike Brady has built up a strong ground game to identify and get out Democratic voters, bringing in big name supporters like Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Joe Kennedy III.<br />
<br />
The result on Tuesday may provide a preview for the 2016 state election where outside GOP groups are planning to finance challengers in many Democratically-held legislative seats, and shed some light on whether a strong Democratic ground game can overcome large GOP money advantages.Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-14813251656691132782015-03-24T06:41:00.000-04:002015-03-24T07:24:13.557-04:00Special election for 11th Worcester seat gives advantage to GOP but is winnable by either Palitsch or Kane<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
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Massachusetts political history has shown it is difficult to unseat an incumbent legislator. So when a legislator resigns—as Matt Beaton and Carlo Basile have done to take key jobs in the new administration of Governor Charlie Baker—there are often strong candidates waiting for a shot at the open seat and the upcoming March 31 special elections to replace Beaton and Basile hold true to form.<br />
<br />
The March 3 primary for Basile's First Suffolk State Representative seat had <a href="http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/1suffolkcan2015.htm">five Democratic candidates</a> and the primary winner—former Basile staffer Adrian Madaro—will almost surely emerge victorious against Independent candidate Joanne Pomodoro in the general election in this incredibly Democratic district.<br />
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The Shrewsbury-based Eleventh Worcester State Representative seat that had been held by Republican Matt Beaton, and previously by Republican Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito, has two strong candidates—Democrat Jason Palitsch and Republican Hannah Kane—and the outcome is harder to predict.<br />
<br />
While the GOP history of the 11th Worcester seat seems to show a preference of the district's voters for Republicans, President Obama won the district by 16 points in 2008 and 8 points in 2012. The district has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+3, or an average of 3 points more Democratic than the country for the last two presidential elections.<br />
<br />
But what does a PVI of D+3 mean in terms of a special legislative election? In order to get a clearer picture I did a regression analysis of the Massachusetts legislative special election results since 2009 and compared them to district PVI.<br />
<br />
<b>District Fundamentals</b><br />
<br />
While there are only 16 data points, the results indicate that a D+3 district is likely to elect a GOP legislator, but the range of possible outcomes is very wide. A strong Democratic candidate can win in this district—John Velis won in the less Democratic (D+1 PVI) 4th Hampden District to replace Republican Donald Humason a year ago.<br />
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The graph shows the Dem-GOP margin vs. district PVI for all of the Dem/GOP contested special elections for state legislative seats since 2009. The horizontal green line shows the cutoff between a Democratic and GOP win, and the angled blue line is regression line showing the best fit for the data. The Palitsch/Kane point shows where the 11th Worcester PVI of D+3 falls on the regression line. The shaded area shows the confidence interval—it is clear that this data is not strong enough to indicate a sure victory for either party, except in the most Democratic districts with a PVI above D+20.<br />
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<div>
<img alt="MA Legislative Special Elections Graph" src="http://i.imgur.com/iufBHW0.png" />
</div>
<br />
The following table holds a summary of all of the legislative special elections since 2009.
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<br />
<div>
<img alt="MA Legislative Special Elections Table" src="http://i.imgur.com/H9Zn0jd.png" />
</div>
<br />
<b>Fundraising</b><br />
<br />
Both candidates have done a good job raising campaign dollars with Palitsch raising a total of $102,169 as of yesterday's pre-election report, while Kane has raised $118,630. The big difference comes in spending, as Palitsch spent all but $4,729, while Kane holds onto $71,428. Leaving this much cash on the table a week before the election seems to indicate confidence in a win by Kane—it doesn't make sense to reserve that much money for election day ground game or to leave that much money in the bank in a close race.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="11th Worcester Fundraising Table" src="http://i.imgur.com/vew0eIg.png" />
<br />
<br />
If the race ends up being close, the up-front spending by Palitsch might be a factor, but the similarity in fundraising totals does not seem to provide a game-changing element to overcome the district fundamentals. </div>
Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-11952921273704731152015-01-22T08:33:00.000-05:002015-01-22T08:35:46.384-05:00State Senate 2015-2016 Democratic majority leadership and committee assignments<div>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span></div>
<br />
Massachusetts State Senate President Stan Rosenberg announced leadership and committee assignments for the Democratic members of the Senate for the 2015-2016 legislative session.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Leadership</span></b><br />
<br />
Majority Leader: Chandler<br />
President Pro Tempore: Pacheco<br />
Assistant Majority Leader: Creem<br />
<div>
Assistant Majority Leader: Joyce</div>
<div>
Assistant Majority Leader: Montigny<br />
Majority Whip: Petruccelli<br />
Assistant Majority Whip: Donnelly<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Senate Standing Committees</span></b><br />
<br />
<b>Ways and Means</b><br />
Spilka - Chair<br />
DiDemenico<br />
Jehlen - Assistant Vice Chair<br />
Brownsberger<br />
Chang-Diaz<br />
Donnelly<br />
Donoghue<br />
Downing<br />
Keenan<br />
Kennedy<br />
McGee<br />
Moore<br />
Petruccelli<br />
Rush<br />
Timility<br />
<br />
<b>Intergovernmental Affairs</b><br />
Dorcena Forry - Chair<br />
L'Italien- Vice Chair<br />
Gobi<br />
Moore<br />
Rodrigues<br />
<br />
<b>Redistricting</b><br />
Downing - Chair<br />
Joyce - Vice Chair<br />
Chang-Diaz<br />
L'Italien<br />
Timilty</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Rules</b></div>
<div>
Montigny - Chair</div>
<div>
Creem - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Chandler</div>
<div>
Spilka</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Bills in Third Reading</b></div>
<div>
Joyce - Chair</div>
<div>
Petruccelli - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Donoghue</div>
<div>
Downing</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Steering and Policy</b></div>
<div>
Wolf - Chair</div>
<div>
Lewis - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Chang-Diaz</div>
<div>
O'Connor Ives</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Personnel and Administration</b></div>
<div>
Rush - Chair</div>
<div>
O'Connor Ives - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Donnelly</div>
<div>
Donoghue</div>
<div>
Pacheco</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Children's Caucus</b></div>
<div>
McGee - Chair</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Ethics</b></div>
<div>
Creem - Chair</div>
<div>
Brownsberger - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Chandler</div>
<div>
DiDomenico</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Post-Audit and Oversight</b></div>
<div>
Barrett - Chair</div>
<div>
Downing - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Lewis</div>
<div>
Moore</div>
<div>
Welch</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Bonding, Capital Expenditures, and State Assets</b></div>
<div>
Keenan - Chair</div>
<div>
Chang-Diaz - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Donnelly</div>
<div>
Donoghue</div>
<div>
Moore</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Global Warming</b></div>
<div>
Pacheco - Chair</div>
<div>
Eldridge - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Barrett</div>
<div>
Downing</div>
<div>
McGee</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Joint Standing Committees</span></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Financial Services</b></div>
<div>
Eldridge - Chair</div>
<div>
Lesser - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Keenan</div>
<div>
O'Connor Ives</div>
<div>
Rodrigues</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Economic Development and Emerging Technology</b></div>
<div>
Donoghue - Chair</div>
<div>
Gobi - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Barrett</div>
<div>
Keenan</div>
<div>
Lesser</div>
<div>
McGee</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Education</b></div>
<div>
Chang-Diaz - Chair</div>
<div>
Jehlen - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Dorcena Forry</div>
<div>
Lewis</div>
<div>
L'Italien</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Housing</b></div>
<div>
Dorcena Forry - Chair</div>
<div>
Keenan - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Chandler</div>
<div>
Gobi</div>
<div>
Jehlen</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Public Safety and Homeland</b></div>
<div>
Timilty - Chair</div>
<div>
Moore - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Chang-Diaz</div>
<div>
Flanagan</div>
<div>
Welch</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Revenue</b></div>
<div>
Rodrigues - Chair</div>
<div>
Timilty - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Downing</div>
<div>
Lesser</div>
<div>
Wolf</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Higher Education</b></div>
<div>
Moore - Chair</div>
<div>
Donoghue - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Downing</div>
<div>
L'Italien</div>
<div>
O'Connor Ives</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Mental Health and Substance Abuse</b></div>
<div>
Flanagan - Chair</div>
<div>
Lovely - Vice</div>
<div>
Donnelly</div>
<div>
Dorcena Forry</div>
<div>
Eldridge</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Telecom, Utilities, and Energy</b></div>
<div>
Downing - Chair</div>
<div>
Pacheco - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Gobi</div>
<div>
Joyce</div>
<div>
Wolf</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>State Administration and Regulatory Oversight</b></div>
<div>
Lovely - Chair</div>
<div>
Eldridge - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Barrett</div>
<div>
Keenan</div>
<div>
Rodrigues</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Tourism, Arts, and Cultural Development</b></div>
<div>
Lesser - Chair</div>
<div>
Downing - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Eldridge</div>
<div>
Lovely</div>
<div>
Wolf</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Community Development and Small Business</b></div>
<div>
O'Connor Ives - Chair</div>
<div>
Rush - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
L'Italien</div>
<div>
Rodrigues</div>
<div>
Wolf</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Children and Families</b></div>
<div>
Flanagan - Chair</div>
<div>
Lovely - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Chang-Diaz</div>
<div>
Keenan</div>
<div>
Lewis</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Public Health</b></div>
<div>
Lewis - Chair</div>
<div>
Flanagan - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Lesser</div>
<div>
Lovely</div>
<div>
Timilty</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Judiciary</b></div>
<div>
Brownsberger - Chair</div>
<div>
Keenan - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Chang-Diaz</div>
<div>
Creem</div>
<div>
Jehlen</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Environment, Natural Resources, and Agriculture</b></div>
<div>
Gobi - Chair</div>
<div>
Rush - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Eldridge</div>
<div>
McGee</div>
<div>
Timilty</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Public Service</b></div>
<div>
Timilty - Chair</div>
<div>
Rodrigues - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Barrett</div>
<div>
Donnelly</div>
<div>
Kennedy</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Elder Affairs</b></div>
<div>
Jehlen - Chair</div>
<div>
L'Italien - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Barrett</div>
<div>
Gobi</div>
<div>
Lesser</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Consumer Protection and Licensure</b></div>
<div>
Kennedy - Chair</div>
<div>
Petruccelli - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
O'Connor Ives</div>
<div>
Rodrigues</div>
<div>
Timilty</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Transportation</b></div>
<div>
McGee - Chair</div>
<div>
Keenan - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Donoghue</div>
<div>
Dorcena Forry</div>
<div>
Lesser</div>
<div>
Rush</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Veterans and Federal Affairs</b></div>
<div>
Rush - Chair</div>
<div>
Kennedy - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Barrett</div>
<div>
Gobi</div>
<div>
Lesser</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Municipalities and Regional Government</b></div>
<div>
L'Italien - Chair</div>
<div>
Lovely - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Brownsberger</div>
<div>
Donaghue</div>
<div>
Timilty</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Health Care Financing</b></div>
<div>
Welch - Chair</div>
<div>
Montigny - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Barrett</div>
<div>
Dorcena Forry</div>
<div>
Joyce</div>
<div>
L'Italien</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Election Laws</b></div>
<div>
Kennedy - Chair</div>
<div>
Donnelly - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Brownsberger</div>
<div>
DiDomenico</div>
<div>
Welch</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Labor and Workforce Development</b></div>
<div>
Wolf - Chair</div>
<div>
Barrett - Vice Chair</div>
<div>
Donoghue</div>
<div>
Lewis</div>
<div>
Moore</div>
Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-71489203753491548072015-01-20T08:15:00.002-05:002015-01-20T08:36:59.461-05:00Boston Olympics poll shows taxpayer funding a primary concern of opponents<i>Respondents who support Boston's bid believe funding will come from private sources, opponents think taxpayers will foot the bill</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
<br />
A <a href="http://www.wbur.org/2015/01/20/wbur-poll-boston-olympics">new poll from WBUR and MassINC Polling</a> finds that 50% of Boston respondents support a Boston-based Olympics, while 33% oppose, and it appears that a some of the opposition is based on who will pay for the construction and hosting costs.<br />
<br />
Forty-six percent of those who support a Boston Olympics think the funding will come from private sources; 35% of the supporters think funding will come from taxpayer funds; while 19% don't know.<br />
<br />
On the other hand, a full 83% of the opponents of a Boston olympics believe that taxpayers will foot the bill for a Boston Olympics, with 7% counting on private money, and 11% who don't know.<br />
<br />
If Mayor Marty Walsh and other Boston Olympic proponents want to increase public support, convincing them that a minimum amount of taxpayer funds will be needed might go a long way to improving Boston's Olympics prospects.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="Olympic support by funding source" src="http://i.imgur.com/R0mrXam.png" />
</div>
Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-19392335379265287442014-11-06T21:56:00.000-05:002014-11-07T12:51:50.000-05:00Massachusetts gubernatorial polls were less biased than national midterm polls <i>A look at the polling average and a comparison of each pollster's last poll to the final result</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
<br />
While a comprehensive look at the polls of the 2014 midterm races show that the polls were <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/">biased by several points towards Democrats</a>, that did not seem to be the case for the totality of the Massachusetts gubernatorial polls of the race between Martha Coakley and Charlie Baker. The final <a href="http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2014/09/massachusetts-2014-governors-race.html">Mass. Numbers time-weighted polling average</a> showed Baker up by two points, essentially equalling the unofficial election result of a 1.88 point Baker win, and a simple average of the last poll from each pollster shows a similar result of Baker +2.3.<br />
<br />
While the average was very close to the election result, the final polls of the Massachusetts gubernatorial race showed a reasonably wide range from a 4 point lead for Martha Coakley, to a 7 point lead for Charlie Baker.<br />
<br />
The following table gives details of each pollster's final poll sorted by difference from the election result. The polling methods included internet panel, live phone interviews, automated phone calls (IVR), and IVR supplemented with an internet panel to reach non-landline respondents.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="MA Governor polls vs. result (chart)" src="http://i.imgur.com/Hd1FYo3.png" />
</div>
<br />
The YouGov poll showing Coakley up 4 was the biggest miss of the final polls with a difference of -5.88 points from the actual result. The Globe/SocialSphere poll had Baker up 7 (a 5.12 point difference), the UMass poll missed by -4.88 points, and the Emerson College Polling Society poll missed by 4.02 points.<br />
<br />
The closest poll to the final result was the Rasmussen IVR/Internet poll 22 days before the election which had an almost perfect 2 point Baker margin. MassINC Polling was also close to perfect with Baker +1, closely followed by Suffolk with Baker +3. UMass Lowell was just over 2 points off (Baker +4), and WNE had Baker +5 for a miss of 3.12 points.<br />
<br />
While some of the polls of the Massachusetts gubernatorial race were remarkably accurate and others missed the mark by 5 or 6 points, the overall picture provided by the polls in the form of an average gave us a good idea of the eventual result.Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-14987438037774570322014-11-05T10:27:00.000-05:002014-11-05T10:27:02.233-05:00Money from Massachusetts GOP shadow group fails to unseat targeted state representatives<i>Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance spending on immigrants-over-veterans mailings had little affect on race outcomes</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
<br />
An outside spending political action committee run by Republican State Committee member Rick Green and called the Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance portrayed itself as an issues-based committee concerned with fiscal discipline. But mailings undertaken by the committee against a group of 19 Democratic State Representatives made it clear that the goal of the group was to campaign against those house members and support of GOP challengers using <a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/09/16/mailings-targeting-mass-house-democrats-cause-stir/TocPzUNqITeGy2aR6HdsiO/story.html">a debunked immigrants-over-veterans attack</a>.<br />
<br />
The mailings seem to have failed as 17 of the 19 representatives were re-elected, several in very GOP-leaning red districts. A loss by Rep. Rhonda Nyman to GOP challenger David DeCoste was in the 5th Plymouth District where President Obama lost by 8 points, Senator Warren lost by 26 points, and is r<a href="http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2014/05/an-updated-partisan-ranking-of.html">anked the third most GOP-leaning Rep. district in the Commonwealth</a>. This is a hard district for any Democrat to hold.<br />
<br />
The other loss came in the more Democratic 2nd Franklin District. Rep. Denise Andrews of Orange lost to two-time challenger Susannah Whips Lee. Lee outraised Rep. Andrews in the pre-primary and pre-election reporting periods, raising $44,698 compared to $16,960 for Andrews.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="Election results for MFA targets" src="http://i.imgur.com/SiCSjZp.png" />
</div>
<br />
The success of Democratic incumbents Josh Cutler, Colleen Garry, Jim Cantwell, Ted Speliotis, and Jim Arciero in Republican-leaning districts shows that the PAC mailings were not an effective campaign tool for the GOP.Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-48853317662231162602014-11-03T17:19:00.000-05:002014-11-03T17:19:01.197-05:00A data supplement to legislative races to watch article<i>District partisan lean and pre-election fundraising data for competitive legislative races</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
<br />
Gintautas Dumcius and Mike Deehan put together <a href="http://www.wbur.org/2014/11/03/legislative-races-2">a great overview of some of the interesting Massachusetts races for Massachusetts State Senate and Representative</a> available on WBUR Poll Vault.<br />
<br />
While Dumcius and Deehan touched on fundraising and district partisanship in the article, I put together a table that has each candidates fundraising total for the OCPF pre-election period, and the Obama and Warren margins for each district for your analyzing pleasure.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="Legislative races to watch" src="http://i.imgur.com/JG62fFk.png" />
<br />
<br />
Here is an <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Wn-eMihp6ti9pP0PsoOpgPihwgn4Swz909oeiXFCHbI/edit#gid=1362937009">online spreadsheet</a> with the same data.</div>
Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-15838252078411376322014-11-03T06:58:00.003-05:002014-11-03T06:58:30.728-05:00Not all survey methods are equal in 2014 midterm race polling<i>Many midterm races have seen a similar method-based bias as the Massachusetts gubernatorial race (internet+Dem, IVR+GOP), but others show the opposite</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
<br />
There have been <a href="http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2014/10/there-are-significant-differences.html">significant and consistent differences between IVR, live operator, and internet polls</a> of the race for Massachusetts governor with internet polls showing a Coakley +4 lead, live operator polls showing Baker +2, and automated phone (IVR) polls showing Baker +5. But is this internet+Dem/IVR+GOP bias seen across other 2014 midterm polling?<br />
<br />
In order to answer this question I downloaded all of the October polls for a large sample of reasonably competitive midterm Governor and Senate races from the <a href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster">Huffington Post Pollster site</a>, computed a polling average for each race, and then compared the race-wide average to the average for each survey method, recording a difference as positive number for Democratic bias and a negative for a Republican bias.<br />
<br />
The results are in the following table with polling methods including live phone calls, automated phone calls (IVR by itself, or with supplements live phone calls or internet panels to reach non-landline respondents), and internet-based survey panels.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="2014 Midterm survey bias by method (chart)" src="http://i.imgur.com/6IEoaIL.png" />
</div>
<br />
The results show an internet+Dem/IVR+GOP bias similar to MA-Gov in the Colorado, Maryland, Maine, and Michigan gubernatorial races, and also in the Colorado and New Hampshire Senate races.<br />
<br />
However, some races show exactly the opposite, including Alaska, Georgia, and Michigan Senate, and Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, and Kansas Governor. Michigan is particularly strange with the Governor and Senate race on opposite sides.<br />
<br />
A look at the distribution of differences for all of the races for each survey method provides some insight into the race-by-race biases.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="2014 Midterm survey bias distribution by method (graph)" src="http://i.imgur.com/0lbDugF.png" />
</div>
<br />
The histogram for live phone polling sows a nicely shaped normal distribution centered at the average margin, with a similar probability of differences above and below the mean.<br />
<br />
Internet polls are skewed to the Democratic side, but shifted to the left past the mean of zero, possibly a result of the sample weighting. On the other side, IVR polls are somewhat skewed to the GOP side, but shifted to the right past the mean of zero, possible due to weighting.<br />
<br />
The IVR/Online polls look closer to a normal distribution, but the IVR/Live Phone polls have very irregular-looking distribution shape.<br />
<br />
A possible explanation differences in bias for some of the races could be weighting overcompensation for Democratic bias in the internet polling and for GOP bias in the IVR polling.<br />
<br />
After Tuesday's election results it will be possible to determine which survey method type was most accurate in the midterm polling and look for explanations of the affect of survey methods on poll bias.Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-65584559334287608362014-10-31T23:16:00.001-04:002014-10-31T23:16:49.281-04:00There are significant differences between IVR, live operator, and internet polls of the race for Massachusetts governor<i>Which polling methodology is seeing the right set of voters won't be known until after Tuesday's election</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
<br />
As the polls of the race for Massachusetts Governor have steadily moved from a Martha Coakley lead in early September to a Charlie Baker lead in late October, a complicating factor has arisen: each of the three polling methodologies used to survey the race are showing different results. Interactive Voice Response (IVR) or robopolling firms show a reasonably large 5 point lead for Baker. Traditional live operator telephone polling shows Baker with a 2 point lead. And internet panel surveys show Coakley with a 4 point lead in the race.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="MA Gov. polls by type (graph)" src="http://i.imgur.com/SWOqVPK.png" />
</div>
<br />
<div>
<img alt="MA Gov. polls by type (chart)" src="http://i.imgur.com/GQPZ0lf.png" />
</div>
<br />
Which of the methodologies are seeing the appropriate set of voters? IVR-only firms like Emerson are not able to reach large swaths of the population without landlines, meaning fewer younger, urban, and non-white voters. Live operator telephone polling suffers from severe non-response effects as more and more people screen their phone calls. Internet surveys are the new kids on the block and have their own (probably smaller) set people who cannot be reached.<br />
<br />
Pollsters of each persuasion use best-practices and weighting to compensate for these effects, but it seems that each of the methodologies is getting a different view on the Coakley/Baker race. If the IVR firms and/or the live operator pollsters <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/upshot/why-polls-tend-to-undercount-democrats.html?_r=0">are having trouble seeing all of the Democratic voters</a>, Baker could be in for a Tuesday shocker. If the internet pollsters are getting it wrong, Martha Coakley will suffer another tough loss and Charlie Baker will be the next in a long line of Republican governors of Massachusetts.Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-76711654820770862522014-10-29T14:54:00.000-04:002014-10-29T14:54:21.780-04:00A comprehensive look at polling of all four ballot questions provides an indicator of likely results<i>Baker disagrees with voter consensus on gas tax and earned sick time while Coakley and the average voter disagree on bottle bill expansion</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
<br />
While the occupancy Massachusetts' corner office is still up for grabs—the race between Martha Coakley and Charlie Baker remains <a href="http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2014/09/massachusetts-2014-governors-race.html">too close to call</a>—a comprehensive look at the last two months of polling shows a strong enough voter consensus on the four ballot questions that a likely result can be predicted for each initiative.<br />
<br />
The following summary table shows a polling average for each question, whether the measure is likely to pass or fail, and the position of the two major gubernatorial candidates. The remainder of the article gives a comprehensive look at the last two months of polling on each question.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="Ballot question summary" src="http://i.imgur.com/YAiR7mB.png" />
<br />
<br /></div>
A plurality of survey respondents and candidate Coakley are against gas tax indexing repeal (by a relatively small average margin of four points) while Baker supports indexing repeal. Voters, on average, are against bottle bill expansion as is GOP candidate Charlie Baker, while Democrat Martha Coakley sides with environmental groups in favor of bottle bill expansion. Most voters oppose repeal of the casino law, as do both gubernatorial candidates. Question 4 on earned sick time is very popular among voters (with an average margin of 25 points) and is also supported by Coakley, while Baker opposes the earned sick time initiative.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Question 1 - Eliminate gas tax indexing</b><br />
<br />
Ballot Question 1 on repeal of automatic gas tax indexing is the only initiative that has shown some polling inconsistency. That being said, only one public poll in the last two months has shown a positive margin for repeal, and the most recent polls have 14 and 7 point margins against repeal. There is some evidence that survey respondents have been confused by the meaning of "Yes" or "No" in the context of this question in earlier surveys, but there is also evidence that voters are starting to figure it out, based on the fact that Republicans are more likely to be for repeal, and Democrats against. This is the only question where there is a reasonable probability of a result that goes against the polling consensus.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="Ballot Q1 polling" src="http://i.imgur.com/QQObWlu.png" />
</div>
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Question 2 - Expand bottle bill</b><br />
<br />
The polling of Ballot Question 2 on expanding the types of containers with a 5 cent deposit is definitive. Expansion proponents have not led in a public poll in the last two months and the margin seems to be increasing with a whopping 46 point margin in the latest poll from UML. One reason may be the <a href="http://www.eagletribune.com/news/local_news/article_1ced7778-c3a8-5229-8499-31e4639d6385.html">difference in the money</a> spent by environmental proponents and the large retail stores who oppose the question.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="Ballot Q2 polling" src="http://i.imgur.com/UEzLG62.png" />
</div>
<br />
<b>Question 3 - Repeal casino law</b><br />
<br />
It does not seem that voters are in favor of repealing the Massachusetts casino law that allows for the creation of several resort-style casinos in the Commonwealth. Ballot Question 3 has been behind in every public poll in the last two months, by an average margin of 15 points.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="Ballot Q3 polling" src="http://i.imgur.com/B3D4p4b.png" />
</div>
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Question 4 - Require earned sick time for most employees</b><br />
<br />
Polling of likely voters has shown consistent support for Ballot Question 4, which would require employers to provide earned sick time for most Massachusetts employees. The initiative has led in every public poll in the last two months, with an average margin of 25 points. It would seem reasonable for Coakley to use Baker's opposition to this popular measure against him, which she started to do in debates, but there has been no large ad campaign drawing the distinction.<br />
<br />
<div>
<img alt="Ballot Q4 polling" src="http://i.imgur.com/qWHsL5j.png" /></div>
Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-50597999581807385642014-10-16T14:06:00.002-04:002014-10-16T14:06:57.747-04:00Polling methodology seems to be playing a roll in Massachusetts gubernatorial survey results<i>IVR polls are 6 points better for Baker/GOP</i><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by BRENT BENSON</span><br />
<br />
<a href="http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2014/09/massachusetts-2014-governors-race.html">Polling averages of the Massachusetts gubernatorial race</a> between Republican Charlie Baker and Democrat Martha Coakley show Coakley with a small 2 point lead, but there seems to be a major difference between the polls conducted using IVR (Interactive Voice Response) methods, and the polls that use traditional polling methods of operator-based dialing, or newer Internet-based survey techniques.
<br />
<br />
IVR polling has the significant disadvantage of only being able to reach respondents with land-line telephones—federal law disallows robocalls to cell phone numbers. IVR pollsters like <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology">Rassmussen</a> and Massachusetts-based <a href="http://www.theecps.com/#!methodology/c1iwz">Emerson College Polling Society</a> use various sampling and weighting techniques to attempt to compensate for their limited reach.<br />
<br />
Breaking down all of the Massachusetts gubernatorial polls conducted since the September 9 primary by polling methodology (Internet, IVR, and Traditional) shows a large gap between the non-cell-phone IVR polls, which have Republican Charlie Baker up 3 points, and the traditional and internet-based polls, which have Democrat Coakley up by 3 points. The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Box_plot">boxplot</a> below gives a visual representation of the poll distributions.<br />
<br />
There is some chance that these variations are due to sampling error or other causes, but the variations could very well be due to the IVR pollsters not reaching cell-phone-only voters who tend to vote more for Democratic candidates.<br />
<div>
<img alt="MA Gov Polls by polling method (graph)" src="http://i.imgur.com/cdNSAnS.png" />
</div>
<br />
<div>
<img alt="MA Gov Polls by polling method (chart)" src="http://i.imgur.com/kYIzywh.png" />
</div>
<br />Brent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.com0