tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post4060932465089515581..comments2023-11-05T05:17:32.424-05:00Comments on Mass. Numbers: A look at polling averages, fundraising, and district overlap in competitive MA-5 Democratic primaryBrent Bensonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-67147747598106334712013-09-30T15:42:12.350-04:002013-09-30T15:42:12.350-04:00I removed the PPP poll from the average based on D...I removed the PPP poll from the average based on David's observation that the numbers were an incomplete cross-tab, rather than true top lines.Brent Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00536293466379386690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-73767503315798400762013-09-30T15:16:09.694-04:002013-09-30T15:16:09.694-04:00These are the only numbers that the PCCC released ...These are the only numbers that the PCCC released from their PPP poll:<br /><br />Preferred Candidate Have Seen Ad Have Not <br />William Brownsberger 10% X% <br />Katherine Clark 20% X% <br />Carl Sciortino 29% 5% <br />Peter Koutoujian 9% X% <br />Karen Spilka 12% X%<br /><br />Those "X"es were in the original release. I don't think you can include them alongside the other polling results, because these don't represent full toplines, just partial crosstabs.DavidNYChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01014375473989377030noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3976152181723703105.post-14454280982682090382013-09-30T13:55:20.088-04:002013-09-30T13:55:20.088-04:00So, your second paragraph nailed it. Of all the po...So, your second paragraph nailed it. Of all the polls, only one is actually independent, and that was pre-Sciortino ad. What the internal polls do show is that Sciortino has gained traction since that ad went viral and that Clark is in the lead. But -- how much she's in the lead? I don't know. I'm skeptical of her internal showing her over 25% (I don't really think any smart campaign would make public an internal poll that isn't favorable -- see: Romney, Mitt 2012). And any averages are flawed because there's clearly a divide pre-Sciortino ad and post. Reality is that Sciortino is more likely between 11-15% (and possibly higher) than at 10% - his early numbers are bringing his average down.<br /><br />I'm also really curious about fundraising post-ad. Has Clark tapped out, or has she kept pace? Sciortino claimed to raise $263,000 since July 1st. How much did Clark raise?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12327918514350364512noreply@blogger.com