Polls and preliminary data point toward a Walsh victory in Boston mayoral race

A remarkably consistent margin has separated Walsh and Jackson in polls and preliminary voting
by BRENT BENSON

All of the public data measuring voter preference in the 2017 Boston mayoral race show a gap in the low thirty point range, pointing toward a large victory by incumbent Marty Walsh over challenger City Councilor Tito Jackson on Tuesday, November 7.

There have been three publicly released polls of the race conducted by MassINC, Emerson, and Suffolk, all showing Walsh/Jackson margins in the 31 to 36 point range. The September 26 preliminary election showed a Walsh/Jackson margin of 33 points.



Preliminary result geography

The precinct-by-precinct results from the preliminary show Walsh winning 210 of 254 (83%) of the precincts.

(Click here for an interactive version of the map.)


A look at the preliminary results by neighborhood/planning district show Jackson winning Roxbury by 9 points, while Walsh won all other districts with the largest margin coming in at a whopping 71 points in South Boston.

(Click here for an interactive version of the map.)


Walsh had a small victory over Jackson in Jackson's own City Council District 7, winning 51% of the two-way Walsh/Jackson voters.

Given the consistency of the overall margin in the preliminary results and the polls, it would be a remarkable upset and an indication in some serious polling failures if Marty Walsh is not easily re-elected on November 7.